Not that I go searching for it nor see it anywhere it just pops up in my mind... What do you make of this chart, longs vs shorts? Hit like, boost, transfers, send, deposit, cash, good luck, share, comment... Enjoy!
We are going to ask some questions about this indicator - Bitfinex BTC Shorts & Longs - at the bottom but first let's dive in.
Let's start with Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Bitcoin doesn't have much history around ~$15,000 in all its lifetime. We have four instances when this level became relevant.
1) November 2017 (upside) to peak the following month December 2017 at around $20,000.
2) December 2017/January 2018 (downside).
3) November 2020 (upside).
4) November 2022 (downside).
Literally just a few days/weeks and that's it... The $15,000 level is not a good/strong support.
The 7-Nov. candle is full bearish and the monthly candle... Looks worst. Notice how low is the volume... That's because the climax is yet to happen.
LONGS VS SHORTS
In late June 2019 we can see the BitFinex longs/shorts detaching. Before this date, we would see a fight between longs and shorts, after this date the bulls won.
We see the longs going higher and higher and printing a complete disconnect from market action.
We see a massive increase in longs after March 2022 as Bitcoin starts crashing.
The stronger the bearish bias, the more longs being bought... Saylor, SBF?
Longs peaked in June 2022 with a minor shakeout on 7-Nov. ignoring the new low and weak support. Full disconnect from market action.
At the same time something interesting is happening with the shorts.
We can see shorts dead/flat for more than a year after the June 2021 jump.
Shorts completely dead for more than 1.5 years and they wake up again in November, 7-Nov., but still a bleep compared to the longs.
I believe the market will look for balance and kill all of the longs. We see 106166 longs vs 8959 shorts. Such a huge gap has never been seen before.
The market is full time bearish. Going down, moving lower, breaking support, new lows, dropping since November 2021... Yet, the message hasn't hit home.
We might be looking at a major flush before the market turns.
Questions?
What is this indicator showing us? Is this accurate? What portion of the market is being represented here?
These are my only doubts... How good is the information coming from this indicator... If the information can be trusted, the market will look for balance and that means another major drop.
My Theory | Conclusion
Bitcoin/Crypto is moving ahead of TradFi to set the bottom first and recover/steal the show while the whole world crashes.
Thinking this way it makes it possible to have a relief rally in December. Watch out for mid-December (12-December to be exact) for either clear bottom signals or simply change.
Bitcoin will do all of its thing now, a major flush in other to prepare for sustained long-term growth.
But the weak hands, bad players, the bear market has to do its thing before we can move on.
We are not guessing, we are just waiting to see what happens and we will jump in once the signals are clear on the chart.
We are very close to a bottom, things are about to speed up.
We will have another catalyst, the major flush and then Boom!... Slow but steady growth.
I just wanted to share with you this chart of the longs vs shorts.
You don't know the leverage of those longs, most likely it's very low, even a drop from 35k to 15.5k did not destroy them. It's smart longs, slowly DCAing during the downside. They only go down when price goes up. Shorts of the other hand will be squeezed soon :)
AlanSantana
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@Mikanoshi, It can be true that these longs have low leverage and also they are "smart" longs (we don't know this for sure), built up with a strategy long-term but, this doesn't change the fact that there is a lack of balance and the market always tends to correct imbalances.
We have the potential to see a very long/strong lower wick on a flash crash type of move.
Thanks a lot for your comment.
Namaste.
Mikanoshi
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@AlanSantana, I hold such longs myself, liquidation at 11.5k with enough liquidity on sidelines to make it as low as needed. If market really wants to squeeze it, it must go all the way down to unrealistic 3k.
AlanSantana
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@Mikanoshi, I understand and thats good but not many people have extra liquid to support a crash to $10/11k.
The market always moves in search for liquidity.
Thanks a lot for your comments. Let's the hope the bottom comes in soon enough so we can move on and look at the bullish side once again.
I am a Bitcoin bull, just reading and sharing what I am seeing today.
Namaste.
JamesLeblancTheRealist
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Agree with 10k or less and not expecting much recovery until mid 2023 since Mt.Gox liquidator has early payout in feb-march 2023.
Q1 bears will take over Q2 bear/bull fight Q3 maybe bull
AlanSantana
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@JamesLeblancTheRealist, Thank you for sharing. Hopefully we can see a bottom form before 2023 Q1... Hopefully.
Mikanoshi
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@JamesLeblancTheRealist, Considering halving in Q1 2024, by that time price is already back to decent levels. Something like this. Pick your path :)
StoneLuv
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Xcellent analysis. My theory as well. Those longs are about to get tested. What will be the catalyst? Coinbase? Gemini? GBTC? Tether?
AlanSantana
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@StoneLuv, The trend has already been set in motion.
Thanks for taking the time to comment.
Kryptonaught
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This is a free-falling BTC market. The Money flows to those who aren't in denial. well done Alan.
It's smart longs, slowly DCAing during the downside. They only go down when price goes up.
Shorts of the other hand will be squeezed soon :)