It's been clear we've been in a slow steady downtrend. We've been producing lower highs, and slightly lower lows which of course isn't a good sign for positive price action. To be honest we will be at these levels for weeks to come or even another couple months. This entire market has had a serious cooldown.
The charts indicate we're pretty much on a steady path to make candle closes below the crucial support level of $30,000. It's been very remarkable that Bitcoin has been holding strong above $30,000 despite the Tsunami of fear, uncertainty, and doubt that continues to plague the market. Originally I said we were overly bearish but chart doesn't lie.
The good news is that Bitcoin has been extremely fearful for over a month on the Fear & Greed Index. Eventually when sentiment is so fearful we eventually slowly work our way back to being greedy again overtime. The last time we we're this fearful was during March 2020 Global COVID-19 shutdown. The reasons then were quite obvious because nobody knew outcomes of the shutdown as then entire globe went into hysteria.
The reasons why people are extremely fearful of Bitcoin today is pretty confusing: Tesla no longer accepting Bitcoin, Elon Musk's troll tweets, clean energy concerns, China's renewed crypto crackdowns, and the exodus of miners out of China relocating to more crypto friendly mining jurisdictions around the world.... Are these reasons to be extremely fearful? In my opinion no.... This is all good for the Bitcoin network long-term. But cryptocurrency is hyper volatile which is another way to say hyper emotional.
It's difficult to say were we go from here. The best case scenario is we continue to hold above $30,000 and move sideways for a while until the bulls come back. Worse case scenario is we slowly continue down on this descending wedge into the mid $20,000 range and 30k becomes resistance. There still may be more maximum pain and I know it hurts to see.
You can only use so much Technical Analysis before you have to balance it with the fundamentals. Market sentiment and buyer / seller emotion is what ultimately drives price. The charts indicate down in the short term but the long term fundamentals and macro environment for Bitcoin point up. Especially as Governments continue to print historic record trillion dollar packages and stimuluses around the world. Hyperinflation is coming if its not already here.
Like I said before we are going to have a rough choppy summer until we can have a better overall market sentiment. We will get through this cloudy period in cryptocurrency. There's way too much innovation and adoption not to be bullish long term. Bitcoin will be a multi-trillion dollar asset.
As always much peace, love, health, and wealth. Bitcoin = Freedom.
FUDs are an excuse for the long time coming retrace. $3000 happened because of BCH debacle & FUD and in the end people just sold their coins for one mega bear trap. I don't believe the market has topped (Hell even LTC the crypto which always does crazy moves at the end of bull cycles moved by much) and that we are having a mid bear + reaccumulation cycle like in 2013.
peacefuljustin
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@xhunter, I do not believe the market has topped either. There's tons of new interest and adoption coming into this space on so many different levels.
JCLARK87
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Amazing post thank you. I agree. This can't be the end for crypto. My only question is..would it be possible for BTC to no longer be #1? It's been out performed by many cryptos.
peacefuljustin
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@JCLARK87, Thank you for the read! Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is here to stay forever. This is just the beginning an emerging asset class that is now finally being taken very seriously by financial institutions, corporations, banks, and governments around the world.
Ethereum would be the only cryptocurrency possibly capable of over taking Bitcoin in terms of marketcap. However, Bitcoins main function is to serve as a trusted global store of value. Ethereum is to power the decentralized internet and decentralized finance. Bitcoin will always be the most trusted store of value for cryptocurrency. Governments will be seeking to nationalize Bitcoin as legal tender and not Ethereum for now.
The value of everything will eventually be pegged to Bitcoin (houses, cars, commercial real estate, ect...) Hell even now Sotheby's as of this week is accepting Bitcoin for multi-million dollar art and fine jewelry.
Long term its hard not to be bullish.
dRends35
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You're criticisng another guy's charts saying they make "no sense from a TA and fundamental point of view," but looking at your thread here there isn't really any TA here and a lot of commentary.
"You can only use so much Technical Analysis before you have to balance it with the fundamentals."
This really sums up your perspective. You're a fundamentals guy and you haven't really learned TA yet.
peacefuljustin
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@dRends35, Did it make sense to you? I'm a fundamental and TA person both serve as guiding points. Day to day price is largely determined by the mood of investors and market sentiment. More people, intuitions, banks, corporations, and even government are showing strong interest in adoption than ever before in history or any previous cryptocurrency cycle. Equating to more capital and liquidity coming into the space. This trend will continue throughout the rest of this year and most likely the decade.
Everybody talks about a further crash to 20k or 15k but nobody explains why or what happens after that.
$28,000 - $31,000 have so far proved to be hot accumulation zones. We'll see if we continue to hold above $30,000. Or drop further and close below $30,000 with the from what the trend is indicating.
Much peace, love, health, and wealth.
dRends35
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@peacefuljustin, If your TA doesn't match your beliefs and its done well then your beliefs are probably wrong. I dont really bother with the why price will get to X, but look no further than weekly RSI and you'll see that if the trend has changed there is a lot of room remaining. What happens after that - if public interaction with crypto doesn't come under threat then the fibs I'm using suggest BTC will exceed $1 million next run.
peacefuljustin
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@dRends35, Looking back now I can confirm that chart really didn't make any sense lol.
dRends35
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@peacefuljustin, This was a good guess in the end. Well done. But does that mean that you really know where price is going or have much more clue than the guy you were trolling.