So I think people are following 2017 when they should be following 2011-2013. If you look our trends match those more than 2017. I’m seeing a ton of sub 10k btc and FUD being spread and people exiting at the start of a bull run. If you take a look at Glassnode, those who hold 1000+ BTC are BUYING these dips up and aren’t selling. If you circle back to 2017 they were selling.
I do think sub 30k BTC is possible, but at this point writing sub 10k ideas I think is pure FUD, but it’s just my opinion based off the current trends. I’d also be careful with these shorts, you could make nice money off these quick corrections but you’re playing with fire, you usually don’t want to go against the overall market trend.
Also congrats to our newest institution in Bitcoin: Goldman Sachs. Just remember, every BTC you sell you’ll be buying back at 5X the cost, happens every time. Even those who bought at ATH’s in 2017 would have doubled their money within 3 years. Just my 2c.
Thanks for your thoughts, I do like to consider all points of view. Long term I feel bullish, but the last bear market and the lessons learnt from riding a rocket up and crashing down again has seasoned my emotions somewhat.
Considering all these institutions are desperate for bitcoin, the price action is heading down. Things don't quite add up? I seriously consider that institutions can take profits and are not just into buying and holding. They may even trade against each other - why not!
Regarding taking profits. After a massive run up like we just had seems sensible. Don't forget in all bullruns a test of the 21 week moving average is to be expected. That is currently around 20k?
I will be patient and keep buy orders low, and some $ in the pot for 2021, I have a feeling some money my be handy this year!
Mattysalads
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@pete_koru Well we still are at the extreme infancy of institutional support, non institutions still own 80% of all bitcoin. We still have quite a large retail market which leads to this type of volatility, that will settle once that institutional support number rises and we don’t have so much dumb money in Bitcoin. We have lots of people, just like 2017, buying bitcoin at ATH’s and running if it drops 5%. I think hitting the 21 week EMA is certainly possible, but the people I was speaking to were those calling sub 10k.
And every bull run last ten years we’ve seen 30,40,50% corrections multiple times till the top, these 20% corrections are zip on the overall trend of bitcoin from inception.
Not saying we should buy high, or not try and buy dips, but I definitely see the fear rising which leads to a lot of weak hands cashing out on dips who then get bought up and go “wish I held it”
Considering all these institutions are desperate for bitcoin, the price action is heading down. Things don't quite add up? I seriously consider that institutions can take profits and are not just into buying and holding. They may even trade against each other - why not!
Regarding taking profits. After a massive run up like we just had seems sensible. Don't forget in all bullruns a test of the 21 week moving average is to be expected. That is currently around 20k?
I will be patient and keep buy orders low, and some $ in the pot for 2021, I have a feeling some money my be handy this year!