monkia
Long

BTCUSD - trading the H&S breakout

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If you were following my earlier post, you'll see that we bought the H&S breakout once it had retraced and rejected the neck line. We had a few interesting moments on the way to opening this trade, at one point being close to pulling the trigger on a sell. This update outlines my plans for managing this trade by building on the mantra, "stop your losses quickly but let your profits run".

Trade
Entry: 8,856
Stop Loss : 7,730
Target: 11,500

Where we are
We are either forming an ABC correction or 5 wave impulse. Whilst my conviction is that it will be a 5 wave impulse, I want to create the flexibility to profit from either.

Likely resistance and reversal levels are shown on the chart in blue:
9,600 - 0.5 Fib of Bear Wave 5 (BrW5) & top of the Last Leg of Bear Wave Five and bottom Bear Wave 3
10,300 - 0.618 BrW5 and 1.44ext on leg A/i
11,500 - 0.78 BrW5, diagonal down trend, H&S projection

Current plan
My current plan assumes a relatively simple and straight forward movement up to some of these levels. This is unlikely to happen and I will adapt my plan as we move through the coming period. For now, it is as follows:

1. Let this run through past 9,600.
2. Take 25% profits at 10,300 and move my stop loss to the bottom of the two green diagonal lines (e.g. 8500). Taking this level of profits and moving the SL to that point will mean that I can allow the rest of the 75% to run 'risk free'.
3. Monitor what happens around 11,500. *IF* we get this far, I find it difficult to believe we will not at least see some short term retrace here so I will likely sell and look to enter a new trade on a retrace.
Comment: 9,600 resistance was easily broken, hardly pausing for breath. 1HR and 4HR RSI is in the overbought territory (70+). If this doesn't pause before 10,500 my conviction is it will retrace around this level, although I'm less opinionated about by how much, probably to 9,500 or the H&S neckline. I'll look to make last my trade risk free by taking my 25% profit with a STOP and moving my stop loss up. I may sell some of my $6k buy, depending on what I see, with the aim of buying back in at the retrace.
Comment: 25% taken at 10.5k. Stop loss moved up. I’m now risk free. 11.5k-12k is a key area. Potential for a large reversal here so I’ll be watching it closely....
Comment: New updates here:

I am looking at potential scenario(s) that *might* unfold that might allow me to consider a trade against my plan. These are my personal opinions and not advice. Please do your own research and plan trades that work for your plan.
Nice one calling the shots
Reply
monkia busbia
@busbia, thank you sir. Good luck on the run ;-)
Reply
Thanks for your analysis, its working spot on till now.
Reply
monkia vikas.programmer
@vikas.programmer, thx! Getting the 11.5k area right is the crucial decision. We break it, more likely to hit ATH, reject it, more likely to double bottom at 6k or lower.
Reply
@monkia, Is it wise to enter the market now, for short term?
Reply
vikas.programmer vikas.programmer
@vikas.programmer, what is the likelihood of minor pull back to 10,000-10,300?
Reply
monkia vikas.programmer
@vikas.programmer, difficult to call. For any trade I consider what the target is and where I would put the stop loss. I ask if these both look like reasonable areas and if they give me enough risk reward (usually 2 or 3 to 1). From here my target is 11.5k and I moved my stop loss to 8.5k on the previous trade I entered. 1k reward for 2k risk. Another SL are could be below the 9.5k, giving a 1:1, still not for me.
Reply
9,600 resistance was easily broken, hardly pausing for breath. 1HR and 4HR RSI is in the overbought territory (70+). If this doesn't pause before 10,500 my conviction is it will retrace around this level, although I'm less opinionated about by how much, probably to 9,500 or the H&S neckline. I'll look to make last my trade risk free by taking my 25% profit with a STOP and moving my stop loss up. I may sell some of my $6k buy, depending on what I see, with the aim of buying back in at the retrace.
Reply
Excellent analysis Thanks for sharing.
Reply
I'm not ruling out a retest of the H&S neckline (8800). A retract and rejection would signal a lower risk trade and provide me with an opportunity to increase the position size.
Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out