BTCUSD Update: 4104 level holds while price pushes back into resistance zone only to stop at the 4352 to 4407 minor resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing). Is this price action bullish? Not on the bigger picture.
The price rally that occurred near the 4104 support level that I wrote about in my previous report is the type of move that is great when trading smaller times frames, but the problem with the bigger picture is: it's right back in the middle of the 4203 to 4548 resistance zone which makes it still too risky in terms of getting long for a swing trade.
The bounce off of 4133 is certainly worth noting as a higher low which is a sign of strength, but without the higher high (follow through), it is really nothing more than noise at the moment. It is very possible that this market is beginning to build a more bullish foundation which will be confirmed IF price can produce a subsequent higher low followed by a push to the 4548 break. In that scenario, I will have enough evidence of strength to BEGIN to look for a new swing trade long.
If you are day trading, that long can come sooner, but the reason why I wait is because the upside potential needs to be clear and at the moment it is not. 4104 is still significant and if price breaks below, I will consider that a major sign of weakness. Often what happens in a situation like this is if price does not follow through, the new longs will create even more selling momentum as they scramble to get out. This kind of price action can provide the momentum required to break the 4104 support. The market has to choose.
In summary, these markets are slow and require a decisive move one way or the other. On one side, it is possible that the lack of selling momentum (4104 held) can be interpreted as strength, but without follow through, it is not enough because the risk is still too high. What I would like to see for a long is the break above 4548 so that I can look at this resistance zone as a new support. That would change things entirely, but until that happens I have to stay out and watch. A retrace back to 4104 and possible break will add to the bearish argument even more and I will stay flat unless extreme prices are retested. My plan is simple, I know what I need to see, and if the market doesn't present it in a way that offers reasonable risk according to my plan, then I do not have to take any risk.
Best analyses on this site. Always a joy to see that lightbulb flash with a badge in the afternoon, I know it's you with another thoughtful analysis. Learned a lot about swing trading the past couple of weeks just from your posts. I'm really grateful you put the time into writing these and hope that you continue to do so.
All the very besteds,
- TheBiebster
@TheChartmergeny, glad you find my analysis educational and that is the point. I may not call many trades, but many don't realize that what you learn from them will help you think independently and that is much more valuable than following trade calls.
joshscha
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Additionally, you're about to have MACD crossover. Don't pull that trigger yet.
joshscha
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Completely agree 4100
MarcPMarkets
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@joshscha, its been so hesitant. It would be nice for the market to decide one way or the other.
gciriaco
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China is most likely back in the game... So!
MarcPMarkets
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@gciriaco, interesting to see how that will affect things. Thanks for sharing.
gciriaco
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@MarcPMarkets, You got it brotha from anotha mami...
marcelormx
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Thanks Marc. Would be good if you could also take a look at other crypto like XRP, NEO, QTUM and OMG.
All the very besteds,
- TheBiebster