PW

Simple BTC Trading Strategy: 2HR EMA Cross

PW  
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
613 6 2
This is a very simple trading strategy: go / long short BitFinex when the 2HR             EMA crosses.

Note: In this chart entry price is the candle after the EMA cross. This is because the EMA's will often look like they are crossing but don't end up doing so.

Of course this does not maximise potential returns however as this chart shows, sticking to this strategy would have resulted in zero losing trades and solid return over this period.

It also means that you don't have to spend hours pouring over charts / reacting to emotions / what people are saying in chat room etc. When I reflect on the time I have spent in front of the screen vs. my returns, I think I would have preferred to spend the last month:

(1) Adhering to this simple trading strategy. Building more confidence with no losing trades.
(2) Paper trading more advanced strategies on lower time frames ( Bollinger Bands , Fibs etc)
(3) Achieving other things outside of trading and getting more regular sleep :)

Caveat: I am a newbie
wonky_tonky
2 years ago
welcome to autotrading m8t. try to draw lines where you buy and sell .. now it looks great but there's some things you should consider:
- you only know if a ema cross happend at the next bar open price. so I'd like you to draw lines for your buys and sells on this chart .; and post it again.. (best use the "bars" chart .. it shows open and close price)
-then think : would i realy trade like this (take into consideration sometimes prices goes realy low or high against your position ) the more leverage.. the more it eats up your deposit..

GL & happy trading
Reply
PW wonky_tonky
2 years ago
Thanks for your comment Wonky.

1. With respect to your first point, looking at this chart it's not immediately obvious but I have set the entry price in the middle of 2hr candle following the EMA cross to try in an attempt be realistic. Sometimes you will get a better / worse entry.

2. Would I really trade like this consistently given those considerations? From this limited sample size, I don't really see how the price would go against my position too much, impact on leverage etc. Of course, this is a this is a limited sample size and more backtesting and live trading experience is required. Nevertheless, I think there is enough evidence here to warrant its.

What I need to do next is follow the strategy consistently and report back.
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flibbr
2 years ago
Yeah EMA trading sucks because your talking a 2 hour lag for that cross, then you need to wait another 2-6 hours for confirmation of the cross and not just little bounce around the lines.. at which point the price has already moved into the new range.

Seriously, ema trading is slow, laggy, sucks and will loose your coins.
Reply
PW flibbr
2 years ago
It definitely does not maximise profit, but for someone who works a full time job and wants to catch the major trends it appears to be a simple and effective strategy. With regard to losing coins, it seems that from this period you would be net positive. Caveat: sample size here is small.
Reply
flibbr PW
2 years ago
Yeah when you look back at historic data with ema crosses, it always looks perfect. But in real time... EMA's cross. .then uncross all the time... then cross for an hour or 4 (in this case).. then re-uncross.. and so on.
Reply
PW flibbr
2 years ago
Ill try it and let you know how I get on. I appreciate your input flibbr!
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