$BTCUSD: Daily trend is now up again potentially....
This means we have a chance of triggering a 2 week timeframe uptrend signal if price breaks over 53k ish before Jan 3rd. The 2 month timeframe trend, which has historically drove $BTCUSD's main cycle suggests the market is bullish until May 2022, and the current juncture allows for a move up to confirm, which would last until mid May give or take. This is a good confluence of short, mid and long term timeframes, paired with a low risk technical entry to rejoin the trend. Definitely worth a shot, since the minimum upside we get is a move to 58.3k by Jan 1st, which in itself is a trade with over 5 to 1 reward to risk. A move under 47k would nullify this theory and suggest the scenario where price grinds down towards 21k is in the cards...
There's additional support from the yield curve slightly steepening as of late, with 10 year yields looking ready to climb back up, and Crude oil bottoming potentially, same as equities overall. Manchin negotiating is a different thing than altogether rejecting the Build Back Better plan, which was what the market was pricing in. Omicron being a mild disease for the vaccinated, and the US not closing schools of businesses is a lot less worse than what the market feared too. Perhaps this recent weakness was merely rolling of options and hedges forward into the future, as we had a huge amount of options and futures expirations last Friday, which sent shockwaves across markets even into Monday's price action. With that out of the way, the market caught a bid, and liquidity started to return. Seeing $VIX move lower under 20.49 next would be extra positive.
Keep an eye out for my Twitter updates, as I post content there regularly, more often than publications themselves. I'll try to update this one as we go forward while the trade is valid.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
There's additional support from the yield curve slightly steepening as of late, with 10 year yields looking ready to climb back up, and Crude oil bottoming potentially, same as equities overall. Manchin negotiating is a different thing than altogether rejecting the Build Back Better plan, which was what the market was pricing in. Omicron being a mild disease for the vaccinated, and the US not closing schools of businesses is a lot less worse than what the market feared too. Perhaps this recent weakness was merely rolling of options and hedges forward into the future, as we had a huge amount of options and futures expirations last Friday, which sent shockwaves across markets even into Monday's price action. With that out of the way, the market caught a bid, and liquidity started to return. Seeing $VIX move lower under 20.49 next would be extra positive.
Keep an eye out for my Twitter updates, as I post content there regularly, more often than publications themselves. I'll try to update this one as we go forward while the trade is valid.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade closed: stop reached
