The daily chart gives us a large picture of the overall price movement. There is a possibility that the large price movement from February has created one of the two wedges noted. The support of the first is derived off the candle bodies and the current low would need to be the spring which means upward momentum would have to breach that resistance line of the descending wedge. However, if the second is the actual descending wedge support line, then we should expect a rally right now, followed by a movement down toward the support level one more time in preparation for the actual spring and subsequent bull market return. Either one of these would only be valid if we are in an accumulation phase as I believe we may be at this time. I have provided the Wyckoff of the first already. I am working on a Wyckoff of the second and will post it once it's done. I am also completing a comparison of this current phase with the accumulation phase after 2014 for those who have some concerns about the size of the TR and the ensuing volume profiles, and will be posting that as well.
Currently, on this daily chart, I am watching for RSI to breach that descending resistance line. We should expect to see %B breach its own resistance line prior to that. MACD is also about to print a bullish cross which is inline with a movement up from this general area. While Bitcoin price did print a bearish engulfing candle yesterday, without confirmation today (another bearish candle) it means nothing. As of this time, price is printing a potential reversal candle. If Bitcoin can close the day with a candle similar to its present design, then we would need to see a bullish candle tomorrow to confirm it. Reversing today/tomorrow would set up a potential heck of a weekend as liquidity dries up, making it much easier to move price with lower order sizes.
Hi TexasWestCapital, Thank you for the great chart and detail. I'm a bit confused by your last sentence, are you suggesting larger swing up/down given decrease?
Chris_Inks
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@jamesmudgett, Thank you for taking the time to comment. If we set up for an upward movement into the weekend, then the lower liquidity provides the potential for a great a spark to set off bullish momentum as retail traders emotionally FOMO in after the fact. It's not guaranteed, of course, but it does increase the probability of it happening.
Verethragna
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Hi, thanks for constant updates, and your YouTube channel. What do you think about the current Longs and shorts? Compare to April we have more long positions than shorts, is it possible that this time the longs get squeezed?
Chris_Inks
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@Verethragna, Thank you for the kind words and, of course, for watching the streams! It's always a possibility, but not as likely as a short squeeze. Long squeezes generally appear in illiquid markets. Because markets tend to trend upward, we should generally expect a greater ratio of longs to shorts, whereas being short is necessarily contrary to inherent market trending hence the more noticeable and often short squeezes. If you take a look at the BTCUSD shorts v. longs chart you will see a bearish trend with lower highs and lows while Bitcoin progressed through the bull run of Q4 and into February of this year. The corrective cycle changed that movement to bullish with higher highs and lows. What we are currently seeing in that particular chart may be a reversion back to the bearish shorts v. longs movement which may be an indication of an incoming bull cycle. Of course it's way too early to know for sure, and price hasn't even started moving upward yet, but it's something to watch unfold.
esjaees
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Here is what pulled BTC down and how low it will go.
mboody1980
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@esjaees, dude, stop it with the sub 5k shit. we are way past that
@esjaees, Remember, moving averages are nothing more than lagging indicators and the lines you see don't really exist (they're just a representation of the moving average). As such, moving averages are only able to tell us what has already happened or what is currently happening. They are not able to tell us what WILL happen. They "appear" to be holding back price until they no longer "appear" to be holding back price.
vasics1
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@TexasWestCapital, IMO, there is 'some' credence to the idea of MA/EMA usage; if you hold the belief that trading bots are suppressors of price (given that a number of the freeware bots of quite simplistic in their attributes). Outside of that, I think you summed it up perfectly!