To predict this model, I've had to use a number of techniques and a few assumptions. a. Assuming we're at the bottom or very close. I make this assumption because of recent price action, and Buy/Sell wall volumes, as well as factoring in the upcoming halving. b. I use the confluence of trade channels, along with support/resistance zones, moving averages, halving event trends, & Fib levels, to determine timing of key events.
IMPORTANT - This general pattern could end up starting a little lower than the current range of $7,000, if the 200 WMA (Weekly Moving Average) ends up being the bottom of our current drop . Keep in mind we've never closed a daily below that level so I would expect that to be maintained.
1. We'll trade sideways in the form of an ascending triangle over the next 4 to 6 weeks.
2. We'll break past the upper end of the descending broadening wedge - See pink line NOTE - This will be the first break through trending resistance in over 6 weeks.
3. Next, we'll break up through the triangle sometime late December to early January.
4. This move brings us back to the FIB .618 *Golden Retracement) zone.
5. We test down to the .5 then break up through it to eventually test the $9,300 level.
6. We test sideways until early spring where at some point we test the upper end of the descending channel.
7. For the next several months we trade down into the halving as we normally do.
8. Sometime during the summer we break through the descending channel and then things take off. - Blue Line
9. We eventually break $20,000 in the late summer to early fall, with an overshoot past the target.
10.There's a sell the news event for breaking through 20k. This should be a fairly quick 30% drop .
11.We start testing higher and things get really fun.
I REALLY appreciate constructive feedback. If you're a troll I WON'T respond to you. :)
IMPORTANT - This general pattern could end up starting a little lower than the current range of $7,000, if the 200 WMA (Weekly Moving Average) ends up being the bottom of our current drop . Keep in mind we've never closed a daily below that level so I would expect that to be maintained.
1. We'll trade sideways in the form of an ascending triangle over the next 4 to 6 weeks.
2. We'll break past the upper end of the descending broadening wedge - See pink line NOTE - This will be the first break through trending resistance in over 6 weeks.
3. Next, we'll break up through the triangle sometime late December to early January.
4. This move brings us back to the FIB .618 *Golden Retracement) zone.
5. We test down to the .5 then break up through it to eventually test the $9,300 level.
6. We test sideways until early spring where at some point we test the upper end of the descending channel.
7. For the next several months we trade down into the halving as we normally do.
8. Sometime during the summer we break through the descending channel and then things take off. - Blue Line
9. We eventually break $20,000 in the late summer to early fall, with an overshoot past the target.
10.There's a sell the news event for breaking through 20k. This should be a fairly quick 30% drop .
11.We start testing higher and things get really fun.
I REALLY appreciate constructive feedback. If you're a troll I WON'T respond to you. :)
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Here's a higher level view.
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Please ignore previous comment. Thought I could post an attachment.
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Analysis has been adapted to include the potential of an inverse head/shoulders & Descending Broadening Wedge continuation pattern that could lead us to break the $8,200 range soon. twitter.com/Jes...436750080421888?s=20
Trade active:
The Head and Shoulders played out but missed it's $8,200 target. With this change in market structure the top of the Ascending Triangle appears to be at the $7,800, .5 FIB range, which makes tons of sense in hindsight as it's a key resistance zone. It also appears that we're completing a Cup and Handle that will lead us to the upper end of the channel around the $7,900 range. Then we'll probably trade down to sideways for a month or more.
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Looks like my Ascending Triangle was just a little low. Outside of that, things are playing out well.
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The Ascending Triangle ended up turning into an Inverse Head and Shoulders, but outside of that we're pretty much on track. Should see a move to the $7,700 to $7,800 range within the next week.
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The Inverse Head and Shoulders played out perfectly.
I think we'll trade around the 100 MVA for a few days and then break above the upper end of the downward trend line up to the .618 extension. Then trade above that for a few days before heading higher.
I think we'll trade around the 100 MVA for a few days and then break above the upper end of the downward trend line up to the .618 extension. Then trade above that for a few days before heading higher.
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Looking for another break up to the $8,500 region which should launch us fairly quickly into the $9,100 region.
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The momentum is quicker than I anticipated which puts me about 10 days later then the actual movement at it's current stage.