Sawcruhteez
Short

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 233)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.

Previous analysis / position: Changed my call for the bottom from $2,860 by 10/31/18 to $2,718 by 1/20/19 / Short USDT:USD from 0.968
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,385 | R: $6,420
BTCUSDSHORTS: Finding support at 30 day MA, could form symmetrical triangle
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% (seems like a long time that longs have been paying)
Short term trend (4 day MA): Bullish for 3 candles, crossing below now
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Right on it, last candle closed below so it is bearish
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish but starting to turn up after everything was in agreeance a few days ago
Volume: Remain painfully low
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Daily hanging man and shooting star
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud holding as resistance | 1h is fully bearish
TD’ Sequential: Bounced from 4h TDST level | 12h R2 failed to close below R1 | D: G2 = G | 3D price flipping after R7 | W R3 = R2 = R1
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464
Price action: 24h: +/ - 0 | 2w: -1.71% | 1m: -4.%%
Bollinger Bands: Continues to resist daily MA
Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $6,604
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Stuck at 50 on most time frames
Stochastic: 1h sell signal should be outmatched by 4h buy

Summary: 4h chart is bouncing from TDST level after at red 7. That is in confluence with the stochastic which just flashed a buy signal. The current price is $6,408 and I expect that combination of support to provide a bounce to $6,428.

I wish I was kidding, but this is what the market has come to. In all honestly it has become very frustrating to track and I have been spending the large majority of my time focusing on traditional markets.

However, I intend to stay engaged with the price action so that I don’t get left behind when the next move does happen. Believe me that it will. As the matter or fact the longer that we coil inside this triangle the more violent the following move is expected to be.

So do not let the market lull you to sleep and do the best to stay on your toes. If this was easy then everyone would do it. This is not easy and that is why we will deserve every penny that we earn when the volatility picks up. For now I will remain on the sidelines and plan on remaining there until/if $6,350 support breaks down. At that point I will look to re enter my short positions.
EMASAR Indicator is available for purchase at http://www.sawcruhteez.com

Comments

Im wondering whether BTC price has ever been substantially below its mining costs? some people say average mining costs is around 6k atm so it may seem rather unlikely for BTC to drop below if this never has happened before as well.
Reply
Sawcruhteez moviestar
@moviestar, I would disagree with this premise for a couple reasons. First would be that most people are just speculating on how much it costs to mine BTC. With the best miners and cheap/free electricity it is entirely feasible that a big operation could be mining them for much cheaper than $6,000 per BTC. If that was the case they would not have any motivation to disclose their actual cost because that could eliminate their competitive advantage.

If it is a fact that BTC cost $6,000 to mine then I still don't think that makes the price unlikely to fall below that level. Look at gold and oil where there are countless examples of companies operating at a loss when prices get too low. The smart ones will be prepared and will be able to weather the storm, the others will not.
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