Most of us are here to make money. I am. Crypto no doubt is fascinating, in the sense of where will blockchain technology take us. Although we buy/sell and protect with stops ... ultimately we must decide if this is all one big fun experiment for someone and will eventually melt to $0, or whether there is a future.
I'm surprised by the resilience of BTC. Seriously, think about it ... hacks, manipulation, futures shorting, banks against it and have declared war, etc, etc and it's still at 6300 (as of Sep 19, 2018) per BTC?? I don't know about you, but if I had to invest in company A, and all that crap came out, I don't think company A would still be in business. So, there's something about BTC that's keeping it alive. Maybe it's the potential ... when dot com happened, at the time was anyone thinking Amazon, Google and Facebook would come of it? No ... we just had a concept, and it seriously changed the world as we know it (some would argue for the worse).
So, let's assume blockchain does find some major use, and let's assume BTC remains king of the hill. Let's also assume we can use Elliott Wave to project the future price ...
See this chart ... Super Cycle Wave 1 started in 2010 and ended in 2017 at almost 20k. This wave is made up of a clearly formed impulse wave (I've identified Wave 1, 3 and 5 in red text on the chart). Elliott wave has highest probabilities for future waves as follows:
- Super Cycle Wave 2 ... we are in this now, 61.8% correction is highest probability, and this has already been surpassed at 7500. So now 78.6% is next support, at 4200. From price data and log trend lines, there is also great support at 4500. So consider this a likely target for this correction ... 4200 to 4500.
- Super Cycle Wave 3 ... highest probability is 1.618 of wave 1 ... that takes us to 36k.
- Super Cycle Wave 4 ... highest probability is 61.8% again ... that takes us to around 17k (remember it's 61.8% of the length from 4.2k to 36k).
- Super Cycle Wave 5 ... highest probability is it is equal to wave 1, so around 20k ... that brings us to 37k.
Now, some will say BTC will go much higher ... sure, it's possible ... the plot I have is based on probability, and has a mathematical basis. I'd say all manipulation aside, these are the most likely targets. Now, timing is an issue ... wave 1 took 8 years ... how long will wave 3 take to complete? I suspect much less than 8 years, as we have the world's attention now, but not sure how quickly ... 2 to 3 years??
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this data for trading/investment/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
I'm surprised by the resilience of BTC. Seriously, think about it ... hacks, manipulation, futures shorting, banks against it and have declared war, etc, etc and it's still at 6300 (as of Sep 19, 2018) per BTC?? I don't know about you, but if I had to invest in company A, and all that crap came out, I don't think company A would still be in business. So, there's something about BTC that's keeping it alive. Maybe it's the potential ... when dot com happened, at the time was anyone thinking Amazon, Google and Facebook would come of it? No ... we just had a concept, and it seriously changed the world as we know it (some would argue for the worse).
So, let's assume blockchain does find some major use, and let's assume BTC remains king of the hill. Let's also assume we can use Elliott Wave to project the future price ...
See this chart ... Super Cycle Wave 1 started in 2010 and ended in 2017 at almost 20k. This wave is made up of a clearly formed impulse wave (I've identified Wave 1, 3 and 5 in red text on the chart). Elliott wave has highest probabilities for future waves as follows:
- Super Cycle Wave 2 ... we are in this now, 61.8% correction is highest probability, and this has already been surpassed at 7500. So now 78.6% is next support, at 4200. From price data and log trend lines, there is also great support at 4500. So consider this a likely target for this correction ... 4200 to 4500.
- Super Cycle Wave 3 ... highest probability is 1.618 of wave 1 ... that takes us to 36k.
- Super Cycle Wave 4 ... highest probability is 61.8% again ... that takes us to around 17k (remember it's 61.8% of the length from 4.2k to 36k).
- Super Cycle Wave 5 ... highest probability is it is equal to wave 1, so around 20k ... that brings us to 37k.
Now, some will say BTC will go much higher ... sure, it's possible ... the plot I have is based on probability, and has a mathematical basis. I'd say all manipulation aside, these are the most likely targets. Now, timing is an issue ... wave 1 took 8 years ... how long will wave 3 take to complete? I suspect much less than 8 years, as we have the world's attention now, but not sure how quickly ... 2 to 3 years??
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this data for trading/investment/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.