Bitcoin rejects 48K which should not surprise anyone because the 50K AREA is a major resistance. This is especially significant after a previous vertical candle which can be interpreted as too many longs were lured into a position thanks to the fear of missing out. Based on the break of the low of the previous candle at 46K, a new sell signal is in effect.
Is a new sell signal a good reason to get short? If you like to chase markets and have no regard for probabilities, why not? As many of my followers know we have a strict policy against shorting these markets. Just as the fear of missing out lures longs at the wrong times, it works the same way for shorts. The problem with the short side is you are fighting a short term bullish structure which was confirmed at the 41K break out. If another higher low develops, it is very reasonable to see a test of the 50K resistance area again during the coming week.
In these situations I prefer to go with the market, not fight it. That means I WAIT for the next support and look for a signal to go LONG. The next support is still around the 41 to 42K area (previous range resistance). IF price breaks that support, THEN we can argue that the current price structure is no longer in play. Keep in mind, Bitcoin can find support sooner (like it demonstrated at 37K).
Anyone can read a chart and come up with a trade idea, it can be learned quickly. What is HARD for MOST people is the WAITING that's involved, thanks to a complex layer of emotions, most notably FEAR. If you can't WAIT, you CAN''T WIN over time.
Opportunities are infinite in this arena. You can be wrong about potential opportunities and miss countless moves and still have your capital intact for the next opportunity. Since the majority of signals (especially on smaller time frames) are low probability, developing your WAITING skills is more likely to result in a positive outcome.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective, I hope you find it helpful.
I know that Marc will not answer but he is making pretty fast conclusions on it, 1st it's a weekend 2nd Volume is slowing down, it could mean a) we are retracing b) we are loading to brake 51k. 41k is not even a Fib point. You have to brake 200Ma first, because it's acting as resistance.
gmanel
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@STPAUL007, So is it a) or b) ? Just saying it could go up or down isn't particularly insightful. And it's spelt b-r-e-a-k.
STPAUL007
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@gmanel, 200ma Is your base line on the daily. Imho it will go up to 50-51k and then we will see a retracement
gmanel
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@STPAUL007, Now we're talking. That would make the current value about middle of the range, so if you're hands off, a 1:1 R/R ratio. Marc and those of us that think he might have opinions worth paying attention to would see it this way : Sure you could make 3-4k on a buy, but the risk is defined by the last proven support it could fall to, which would be all the way back down to 41 from whatever it is right now. Is it worth your while to take that trade, only you can decide. Good luck and trade well.
Gunslinger2005
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@gmanel, it is plenty insightful. only idiots post things as absolutes or with certainty
gmanel
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@Gunslinger2005, It isn't even spelt correctly or composed coherently and you're finding insight in what is at best a " this coin will land either heads or tails" statement. Have at it. And if you think this group deals in certainties or is composed of idiots, you need to read more of the OP's posts and understand the risk management philosophy.