V0ld3mar
Long

Bitcoin in the accumulation phase. Next target 12K!

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello crypto friends,

Analyzing the Bitcoin chart I see fractal patterns that repeat over and over again. That is all about cycles.

After breaking down the descending triangle Bitcoin found support in 7700-8800 price channel .
BTC has the same price action behavior as during accumulation period in 2018-2019 after breaking the 6K support and falling to 3K.
With higher lows and higher heights BTC is showing strength which means that breakout of that ascending triangle is inevitable.

RSI and MACD on a daily are on the same levels as in 2018. Volume is decreasing and volatility is expected to decrease too. But this is exactly what usually happens in such cases! Just remember what happened in 2018 and be ready for boring price action in the next couple weeks.

With the highest probability we should expect Bitcoin to break through the 9K level of resistance in the end of October 2019 and go at least to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement that is 10500. Partial profit taking zones which correspond to 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels are indicated on the chart.

4th wave of Elliott wave structure has completed its ABC correction and found bottom at 7910. The final impulse 5th wave has to be extended. Bitcoin loves making parabolic final moves.

There is an expiration of CME Bitcoin futures on the 25th October 2019 so we can expect breakout happening near that time. By the way futures gap at 12K is still not closed. So BTC might go slightly higher. All gaps on BTC1! CME Futures were closed before and it is likely for that one to be closed as well.

What will happen next the price will tell.

This idea is not a financial advise, but you probably know that already ;)

Oct 20
Comment: BTC closed daily with a Doji candlestick above the bottom line of ascending triangle:

We might consider 7800 price zone as a strong support.
Oct 20
Comment: Breakout from a falling wedge. Waiting the price of BTC to hit upper line of ascending triangle in the next 3 to 5 days:

Oct 21
Comment: We got confirmation from weekly candlestick closed with a long lower wick. Weekly 100 moving average acted as a strong support. Now we can consider 7800 price zone as a local bottom.

Accumulation continues before the breakout.
Oct 22
Comment: Check similarities of BTC price movements comparing to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust chart:

Oct 22
Comment: If the price of BTC will be ranging in accumulation zone this week than we'll see a Doji candlestick on monthly which may indicate additional bullish confirmation:

Oct 22
Comment: And don't forget about CME Futures expiration this week. We might see a surge in volatility by the end of the week. Therefore, you need to be careful when placing close SL orders to avoid fake breakdowns and breakouts.
Oct 23
Comment: As you may noticed we had a small gap on BTC1! CME Futures. With today's movement it's almost closed. Still one more move to the down can be expected:

Oct 23
Trade closed: stop reached: So, decision was made not as was expected. SL triggered at 7740.
Looks like market maker decided to close 7200 gap first. This sequence of closing gaps has its own logic, because with future price growth and closing 12K gap, we will no longer return to the 7K levels:

Still do not consider 7200 area as a bottom, because we have not much info at the moment.
Oct 28
Comment: My view of the price movement turned out to be true, but a mistake in chart interpretation knocked me out of the trade by a SL. I hope you managed to buy some Bitcoins at 7K levels.

Personally, I did not open any trades after my stop loss was triggered at 7740. That is why it is very important to optimize risk and use the appropriate leverage. Losing only 1-2% of your portfolio won't blow your deposit and you'll be able to trade again and again. Also don't forget to have not only a trading portfolio, but hoDl portfolio for long-term investments as well. I think I'll make separate educational idea concerning this topic.

But what do we see now? What I'm confident in is that I won't rush buying that pump candle. Moreover, max price target might be slightly lower than 12K previously expected:


Soon I'll make new idea concerning next vision of BTC price movement. Stay tuned!
Price is sitting on weekly 100 moving average. From that level price might have a strong bounce next week:

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Price failed to close daily below the bottom line of ascending triangle, that level holds well:


Bottom line of ascending triangle plays as a good support.
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I feel the same
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Looking promising, good TA, keep on going friend
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