Looking at the weekly Money Flow Indicator on Bitstamp we can see that Bitcoin hasn’t gone above 95 since 2013. In fact only 3 times previously has it gone above 95. That was in 2012 and twice in 2013.
Analyzing the history since 2012 we can see that the Weekly MFI has gone in the red only 8 times in the last 7 years. Each time it did, the immediate price drop was dramatic. Note that each time it went over 95 the immediate price drop was over 50%.
1. * Jun - Aug 2012 - 10 weeks in the red followed by a 57% drop
2. * Feb - Apr 2013 - 10 weeks in the red followed by a 87% drop
3. * Oct - Nov 2013 - 6 weeks in the red followed by a 71% drop
4. May - Jun 2016 - 2 weeks int the red followed by a 39% drop
5. Nov - Dec 2016 - 6 weeks in the red followed by a 35% drop
6. May - Jun 2017 - 3 weeks in the red followed by a 39% drop
7. Oct 2017 - 1 week in the red followed by a 30% drop
8. Dec 2017 - 1 week in the red followed by a 84% drop
Average % drop = 55.25%
Average % drop after hitting 95 on MFI = 71.67%
55.25% drop = $3,345
71.67% drop = $2,117
Breaking the previous low set December 15th, 2018 seems extreme but a 55% retracement pulls BTC back down to retest the low without setting a new low. It also pushes the price 7% below the 200 week MA, which is similar to what happened in August 2015 when the price dipped 14% below the 200 week MA.
Analyzing the history since 2012 we can see that the Weekly MFI has gone in the red only 8 times in the last 7 years. Each time it did, the immediate price drop was dramatic. Note that each time it went over 95 the immediate price drop was over 50%.
1. * Jun - Aug 2012 - 10 weeks in the red followed by a 57% drop
2. * Feb - Apr 2013 - 10 weeks in the red followed by a 87% drop
3. * Oct - Nov 2013 - 6 weeks in the red followed by a 71% drop
4. May - Jun 2016 - 2 weeks int the red followed by a 39% drop
5. Nov - Dec 2016 - 6 weeks in the red followed by a 35% drop
6. May - Jun 2017 - 3 weeks in the red followed by a 39% drop
7. Oct 2017 - 1 week in the red followed by a 30% drop
8. Dec 2017 - 1 week in the red followed by a 84% drop
Average % drop = 55.25%
Average % drop after hitting 95 on MFI = 71.67%
55.25% drop = $3,345
71.67% drop = $2,117
Breaking the previous low set December 15th, 2018 seems extreme but a 55% retracement pulls BTC back down to retest the low without setting a new low. It also pushes the price 7% below the 200 week MA, which is similar to what happened in August 2015 when the price dipped 14% below the 200 week MA.
youtu.be/5YHq2oR5E9w