The that appeared off of the 8659 level a couple of days ago is the clue. As you can see, price did not continue higher immediately off the . There was a candle that appeared first. This candle which is nothing more than noise, looks a lot more dramatic on smaller time frames, enough to suck people into shorts or shake people out of longs. This is why I always emphasize evaluating the bigger picture first. The low of that initial was never compromised. This failure translates into a sign.
The 9616 level is the .382 minor resistance of the recent swing. Once price closes above this level, it will confirm that a new leg is in progress. Are there swing trade opportunities here? Yes, but like I wrote in my previous report, the specifics to this trade will be published elsewhere. Even without a specific call, there is enough information here to quantify risk and anticipate reasonable targets.
Keep in mind, the fact that price has pushed into the current support has also signaled for me that the near term expectation of this market is a range bound environment. That means the 10422 to 10943 minor resistance (.618 of recent swing) and the 11700 peak area have a higher chance of preventing a broader break out. IF prices tests these levels and shows immediate signs of failure, I will be prepared to lock in more profit on the position trade that I am managing at the moment. IF price just blows through (still possible) I will take no action and let the winner run.
In summary, many less experienced traders often think in absolutes: IF THIS, THEN DEFINITELY THAT. You can't operate in these markets with such limited thinking. Even gauging precise probabilities is more appropriate for PhD's in Statistics, and not practical for speculators looking to capitalize on short term market movement. What is more practical is having the ability to question the market at all times by maintaining a flexible mindset. As price pushes off the current support, and it is strong as proven by the inability to make a new low, how should it behave at the 9616 level? What should the candle look like? How should a strong market present itself upon testing a minor resistance? How should it close? What about if the low is taken out instead? What does that mean and how does it change expectations for yourself and the herd? These are the questions that you should be asking and answering as the market provides new information.
Questions and comments welcome.
Maybe easier way to ask the question, is how interpret if BTC closes at high 9500's today (in about an hour from now would be the day close if i assume correctly above), and also taking in consideration BTC had been trading in the 9600's for much of the day?
Thanks for the help. Always find your posts clear and insightful.