Bitcoin, Ethereum, and cryptocurrency traders seems positive and bullish right now and indicators point to a rise in the coming days (1D MACD histogram about to go positive, several small bullish runs). However, what I see is a giant coil as large investors look to China and new regulations.
However, I look at the bitcoin chart (even though I mainly trade ether) for guidance. I see a giant coil up and many see this as a bullish coil which will fuel the next bull run. However, most [smart] investors are simply waiting to see what China does next, which could be devastating for bitcoin and the entire market.
What some don't realize now is that China now potentially controls the majority of the currency if they seize assets and mining farms. This would mean that bitcoin is now no longer a democratic voting system (it hasn't been for some time--most of the mining power is in mainland China) but now that power belongs to the Chinese government. To an investor and cultist of bitcoin, this should be a very scary thing. China can decide to do as they wish, as they will be the dominant power. The very thing that made bitcoin appealing will vanish.
I think the permabull cultists need to take a hard look at what is happening. We could be at a pause before another bull run, but I highly doubt it. The market has, in the last few weeks, shown considerable weakness trying to break out above the upper resistance line, reflecting the fear and uncertainty from big investors. The whole market has been bull-crazy for over half a year now, and this could very well be a huge inflection point.
Bulls can call it FUD all they want, but it's real. I think a lot of permabulls are going to get burned really bad soon and we may enter a crash induced bear market for the rest of the year. I welcome any sane comments or questions to which I will reply. Any rubbish will be ignored.
Mining operations are moving out of China so are exchanges. The market will adjust,things will go on.
cycler
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This is a real concern, I think it is the reason for the consolidation. Add to the mix 51% attacks, tightening regulation, and the ico bubble and you have the perfect storm. What would bring new big money in right now? only fish sized speculators.
Let say that China will somehow shutdown all the mining operations in the country and seize the bitcoins of its citizens (the last practically not possible). So what? The rest of the world will adjust accordingly, new mining operations will start or restart and everyone will move on. I think lot of investors are already through with that 'chinese issue on bitcoins'.
Apart from that I think that chinese government is smarter and more forward-thinking than you know and they won't go for 'close it all' scenario.
alter.daemon
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@dgutkowsky, btw I also think that it is not the end of bear sentiment but for other reasons and that is not the 'imminent chinese crypto-apocalypse'.
oshin11
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@dgutkowsky, I disagree completely.
1. China doesn't need to seize all citizens bitcoins, the little fish don't matter.
2. The important thing isn't seizing assets of individuals it's having MAJORITY voting power in bitcoin. Once they have that they essentially break the whole point of bitcoin. They can do whatever the hell they want. They can even mint bitcoin if they feel like it. What is the rest of the world going to do? Nothing because they can't. Only option people would have is to dump all their bitcoin and start over. Out of those ashes there will rise something new, or in my opinion something already there and better (hint hint ethereum with proof of stake where miners get the boot). Or China essentially rolls out its own coin and lets bitcoin die. There has to be some catastrophic event here. With all the bitcoin forks taking place I could see people finally putting the dinosaur down.
3. I think you're way off about investors being through with that whole "chinese issue on bitcoins". If they were the charts would reflect it. If investors were confident nothing would happen we would have demolished 4K and made a run for it already. Bottom line-- nobody thinks bitcoin is worth 4k and thus nobody wants to pay 4k for bitcoin. This "consolidation" is just bots going up and down on low volume.
The Chinese government is smart, but don't for a second think you know what they are thinking. I wouldn't be surprised if there are back-alley talks going on between many governments right now trying to pump the brakes on crypto right now because it's growing too fast for them to control. Even if a fomo run ensues right now, I think it'll be short lived. Bull run 2017, for the time being, is over.