BTC/USD Still By Cloud Support But Will Have To Choose Path Soon

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Not much is happening with Bitcoin the last days. Price is holding above
the SMA200 (blue line) and is being supported by the lower Cloud too.
If price close at current level with a doji , it will open below the Cloud
tomorrow. With a clearly bullish Cloud twist (though descending) the
normal scenario is that price returns back inside the Cloud with a close.
Else it can drop sharply. It is less likely to see further sideways crawling
in such a situation. We might also see a move up later today in respect
of the strong support, but we really need to see a close above the
Weekly pivot point at 9875 to break out of this congestion, that may
look a bit like a bear flag on lower timeframes, but with a Hammer candle
from March 9, it is more of a look a like Flag in my view (just as the among
many TAs talked about inversed Head and Shoulder was a look a like.
A H&S pattern will need proper shoulders, not just a small bump, ideally
to the 50% or 61,8 FIB of the Neckline/Head distance).
The MACD indicator is bearish and descending, but its not reflected in the price
action, something that could be regarded as bullish pressure, but in fact more
reflects the solid support at current level. If price breaks lower, Weekly S1 at
8000 should support and likely cause a bounce. A close below that level will
expose the Monthly S1 at 7000. A close below 7000 will seriously shift bias
going forward, since Monthly S1 should hold support in an uptrend or
sideways consolidation.
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