Peter101

Bitcoin has just arrived at her bottom...

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
3023 20 24
See the description in the chart.
Wow take a look @ how the chart perfectly touched the resistance line you drew!
snapshot
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nice chart.
+1 Reply
nice chart
almost like an oracle
+1 Reply
Hi Peter,

In EW we always label the wave at the end of the move not the beginning. in other words, 1 should be where 2 is. I can see you have identified an important pattern that many other ew analysts have identified, but that count still needs another leg to the downside.

There are a few alternatives to this, for example counting a truncated v of C wave. see my publication for more.
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Peter101 chessnut
I appreciate your comment.
EW, Fib, etc, (say all TA) is not an exact science. Investing would be easy if every pattern automatically would follow in a vast pattern casu quo wave count. Not every wick, wedge, flag, triangle, etc, has the same pattern/structure, therefore you must think in probabilities. If i would follow your thought than you could SURELY foresee what a pattern would do. In my opinion there is only a probaple outcome. Every pattern has it own structure: some have only 3 waves (spike), some have 5,7,8 waves. And what about bull / bear traps, extended waves...
I make always several different pattern possibilities and choose the one with the most likely outcome. (e.g. true outcome possibility of 75/80 percent). A tool i use for conformation of my thought is fractal analisys and look for that in the past. This is very time consuming but can be very satisfying (if your position is profitable). And despite all the effort we have to put in we still must have some luck of 20/25 percent to get a good outcome...
+2 Reply
chessnut Peter101
What you have said is true, but I am not disputing this. You might see a pattern there, but what it the point of numbering abstract points on a chart if you do not mean to follow accepted code of conduct such as the EW principle?
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johnrfraser chessnut
Hi Chessnut,
If 1 was where 2 is, what would A be? Surely A is the end of the first leg of the corrective move, no?
Thanks a lot
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chessnut johnrfraser
a corrective is an ABC. in this case A=abc correctly labelled, B=abc(labelled blue A or 1) and C=1-2-3-4-5 (starting 1 is where 2 is.)
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Dat en counterparty
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Great job dad, very well done :)
+3 Reply
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