Last night we failed to reclaim the 36k, this was an important level if we wanted to see some more upside. After getting rejected on the 36k (which was also a .236 and 0.5 fibonacci level) we fell down to test the first support level of the wyckoff model, at the time of writing it seems to hold. When this holds we could see a small increase in price but in the optimal scenario we would like to see a second test of the support before we go higher.
Therefore I think that an increase in price towards the 21 and 50 moving average is likely (~35,200) this is also supported by the 1.618 of a larger trend extension*, followed by a small price correction to retest the First Support. However, when Volume increases during the approach towards the moving averages it could be that we break through them and see another test of the 36k.
* 1.618 of the larger trend, here you can also see that the low of last night was supported by the 1.272 of a fib trend extension.
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In the last few hours the 21,50 and 200 Moving Average have been broken, now waiting for another close to validate the break of the 200MA as well if this goes well and volume goes up again an increase to 38k is possible.
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After breaking all the moving averages it seems that the price is now consolidating around the 36.6-37.2. This is also supported by the 200MovingAverage and the 21MA is closing in fast, the flag pattern is also confirmed by the decrease in volume. When there is a break to either side we would need to see volume spike to confirm this breakout. To which direction the breakout will be is uncertain, this since the a break upwards is not supported by the bigger timeframes and the breakout rates are only 44% of the time correct according to Bulkowski.
I don't understand your EW count. Aren't they usually followed up with an ABC corrective wave after wave 5? And isn't it supposed to be impulse (1) -> correction (2) -> impulse (3) -> correction (4) ->impulse (5) ----->ABC wave?
DaanVerbeek
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@qwerty123asd It is indeed, but i simply use them just to set out price targets and what i expected the price is going to do. it makes it more easy to track where we are now and explain to others if they have an idea in which 'wave' we are. But in this case it has nothing to do with Elliot
Thompson247krypto
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Do you know about Bitcoin mining
DaanVerbeek
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@Thompson247krypto, i know something about it but not to the technical details, why?
azda71
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1.69B of stablecoins withdrawn from derivative exchanges.
Events of such magnitude are rare and are open to different interpretations.
My take is traders expect unproductive chop and want to re-deploy their capital elsewhere.
From a Twitter post
DaanVerbeek
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@azda71, Thanks for the notification. But it is quite contradictory with the increase of this morning don't you think?
azda71
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@DaanVerbeek, Yes I also think so, a few on the thread are reading it as bearish as well as the OP
azda71
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@DaanVerbeek, Trying to work out where we are exactly on your chart now, have we just finished wave 4 and going into 5?