Maddie
Long

Very strong resistance points coincidence? Or not?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
608 4 15
Hey everyone,

While it feels like were moving in the wrong direction I still see a potential growth long term. The red trend lines I drew are very important resistance lines. We all noticed that the bubble in the beginning of 2013 follows almost the same patter as the bubble from October of 2013. Of course this could be a coincidence but I thought that today would be a good day to analyse this bubble of late 2013 further. I especially only analyse the last bubble by using the resistance lines because otherwise it would be very confusing with all the lines crossing each other :) Tomorrow or later this evening I'll post another chart that's completely analyzed by using fractal analysis.

So now lets get back to the chart ! I'll try to describe as much as I can but if you have any questions or caught me that I made a mistake feel free to ask/tell.

Let's start with the RSI , over the last two years were having 4 different phases. The first phase is the phase after the bubble it mostly consolidates below 60, this is the orange one. Then we have the green phase this is the phase after the consolidation of the last bubble in this phase the RSI is going back up to above 70's to give us a sell signal. After that were going to the bleu collared phase this phase shows us a new downtrend to below the 30's zone on the RSI and than the last phase back up to above the 70's this is the phase were the rally starts after we get above +/- 53. As you can see we're now in that phase :)

So now you know the phases of the RSI I think it's time to take a look @ the chart now. So the orange dotted lines I drew because we're getting lower tops. The same is happening on the bottoms from the beginning of april. This means we're in the middle of a very big pennant. While looking at the resistance lines were seeing that some of the lines cros each other, this means there is a very very strong resistance @ that point as example 2014-04-10 (340) and 2014-08-07 (340) this could be coincidence but it's very likely it isn't. If we take a look at the place were the next cross would be its around 2015-02-12 (614) If we see that fractal the 12th of februari will be the end of the consolidation phase.

For now we're waiting to get ready for takeoff!
I assume it will be around the 3th of october :)

Julian Assange: "The Bitcoin actually has the balance and incentives right, and that is why it is starting to take off."

Also take a look @ the next chart that I've made to confirm this idea!
Possible breakout @ 3 october 2014


I hope this helped you further and don't forget to like :)
Have a good day!!
MoonTrader
2 years ago
We're still above all those lines right now, so I'm expecting one more move down to the mid-400s to touch those lines and then possibly a reversal. The reverse h&s failed, which is bearish, and volume just doesn't seem too good right now.
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Maddie MoonTrader
2 years ago
A setback to 450 could be a very good possibility but we can't go below 30's on the RSI again so I assume that will be the point for this year.
Indeed the H&S failed but I just spotted an ascending triangle lest wait and see how that pays out :)
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bwy PRO Maddie
2 years ago
Hey there! I'd just like to ask why "we can't go below 30's on the RSI again"?
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Maddie bwy
2 years ago
It could be, but when you see it fractal BTC has 4 kinds of phases as I explained in the description. We already went back to the 30's twice which is normal after a big rally. So for now the new direction is the 70's again around october I think :) If not the whole rally idea is over!
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