good morning,
in my last btc post i promised you my macro btc analysis if the post reached 5 likes,
so here you are.
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the count is extremely simple;
from the 2022 bear market lows, btc has come up quite impulsively.
i label the entire leg from september 2023 -> october 2025 as a wave (3).
if you look closely, none of the waves overlap in this leg.
sure it might have an unconventional look, but it's not invalid by any technical standards.
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if i'm correct with my analysis, wave (5) should see an equal appreciation as the length of wave (1) - could become slightly longer, too. usually in cases such as this, you can measure the distance of wave (1) and project it out from the bottom of wave (4);
> look for 100.00% - 123.60% - 161.80% extensions.
this puts the average upside target between 161k - 248k
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all of this leads me to believe that we are not finished with the current bull trend.
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🎯 = 185k
in my last btc post i promised you my macro btc analysis if the post reached 5 likes,
so here you are.
---
the count is extremely simple;
from the 2022 bear market lows, btc has come up quite impulsively.
i label the entire leg from september 2023 -> october 2025 as a wave (3).
if you look closely, none of the waves overlap in this leg.
sure it might have an unconventional look, but it's not invalid by any technical standards.
---
if i'm correct with my analysis, wave (5) should see an equal appreciation as the length of wave (1) - could become slightly longer, too. usually in cases such as this, you can measure the distance of wave (1) and project it out from the bottom of wave (4);
> look for 100.00% - 123.60% - 161.80% extensions.
this puts the average upside target between 161k - 248k
---
- we have had a sustained reading of extreme fear almost all month.
- btc is at the bottom of the bullish pitchfork.
- most people have given up hope. (bullish contrarian signal)
- business cycle has yet to top.
- fed man stopped quantitative tightening and has hinted at a balance sheet expansion.
- aggressive rate cuts.
- monthly hidden bullish divergence present between wave (2) and wave (4) pivot lows.
- we are flipping previous cycle highs into support (horizontal support).
- bitcoin capitulation metric has hit an all time high this cycle (each one has marked a major low).
---
all of this leads me to believe that we are not finished with the current bull trend.
---
🎯 = 185k
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.