In this study I compare Bitcoin's current consolidation around the 1D MA50 with the first two similar consolidation phases at the start of the 2016 Bull Market.
All three sequences run through the same price action: The aggressive parabolic run came to an end, the price crossed below the 1D MA50 and BTC started to consolidate within a Triangle pattern around the MA50. The 1D MA200 was never touched as it offered support all the way through the whole Bull Market.
What stands out is the turn where the MA50 curved downwards for the first time. What followed was the final bottom of that Triangle that essentially marked the end of the consolidation phase. In both 2016 occasions, the decline from the MA50 top to the final bottom of the pattern was -16%. If the same principles apply this time, then we are indeed near the end of the current consolidation. Interestingly enough the Gaussian Channel turns red right after the bottom also signalling the end of the consolidation.
Are you ready for the September pump? Tell me what you think in the comments section!
I am not that optimistic. I am definitely long in the greater scheme of things (5yrs from now) but you should never forget that just a few months prior we were at $3-4k levels and all of a sudden we saw almost 14k. It was not healthy and most volume was/is fake and I think that we'll soon see absolutely normal and healthy "correction waves" at $7-8k in the short term. Now regarding this whole "Bakkt saga" most people think it's good but I wouldn't be that optimistic. It's the perfect vehicle for heavy-hitters (i.e. Family Offices, Hedge Funds etc.) to short it.
TradingShot
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@GuruMeditation, Thank you for your very well constructed argument indeed.
Headcase
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At this point, comparing past cycles to current cycles is pointless. The landscape has changed so drastically.
rogupta
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@forekast, history repeats itself -Darwin's Theory