right now it seems like every trader is adamantly subscribed to one of two camps: (a) "blow-off top incoming, we're going to the moon!" or (b) "10k incoming, everyone will suffer a slow and painful death!". admittedly i'm more often associated with the former (see my blow-off top prediction). but i have my reasons.
here i'd like to offer an alternative to this "two-party system". it may not be as sexy as a never-ending series of green candles straight into orbit, or a relentless chain of long liquidations that leaves a bloody trail of red directly to zero. but it might be more likely. with a market that's slowly maturing (lumbering around between a 2 and 3 trillion dollar market cap) i think the days of such extremely overreactive scenarios are numbered.
with cycles lengthening, i think a perfectly plausible scenario would be a continued consolidation in this range before the market makes its next big decision. i do still happen to believe that next decision will be a continuation into the last leg of this bull market, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
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the origin of the white dotted trendline:
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watching for potential formation of bullish hidden divergences (RSI) here:
this COULD provide some validation/evidence of a more bullish scenario:
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the theory of lengthening cycles would support this idea of a longer periods of consolidation between impulses:
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some people refuse to believe BTC is in a consolidation pattern. for some reason they think that it's too large a range, or that you can't have a new all-time-high during consolidation. to those people i say: look at the volume. this is what volume looks like during consolidation, almost invariably. compare that with volume after the prior two cycle tops.
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following the fractal pretty closely so far. broke above the down trendline and heading back down for the retest now. this is what i'm thinking:
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B1 correction looking flatter than B0, which leads me to believe we may need to dip a bit lower (40kish) to catch a spring
We are back to out conversation in July! Time is a bit out as we thought September time.
The 3rd camp is the mid point - somewhere between 26k and 36k - which for BTC is a 'normal' range width.
No one can call an exact bottom. Put a gun to my head...... around 29k - same area as last time......it has strong RS levels and was a consolidation zone - an area of value with lots of buying. Will whales let the price fall below this area? I don't think so.....that would be bad business and bad for the market in general.
reees
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@esorlegin, haha yup, same conversation! any my philosophy is basically the same as it was then. while i think it's fairly safe to assume we will see lower prices at some point in the future (and i think 29K is a great bet, by the way), it's also fairly safe to assume we will see higher prices in the future as well, and i want to be careful NOT to assume which will happen first.