Is time running out for the bulls?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This adds my own thoughts to timwest's related idea linked here - focusing more on the bearish side.

The bull run of May/June last year took BTC onto a shallower decline - the old channel top becoming the new channel bottom on the log scale (dotted blue line).

Within this, the last wave oscillation trough to trough was 15 weeks, on which basis the current one is around its mid point and normal peak. According to this model if its going higher it should follow the 4th arc pair in a steep rise over the next 2 weeks, with January's high of 315 as the immediate target up to the 15 week high around 400 possibly moving to the shallower bearish channel above if not progressing to further highs.

If not its most likely to continue its oscillating decline within the current channel meaning potential lows as deep as 100 in 5 weeks, but first it would have to breach major support in the 230-250 band as indicated by the volume profile and the most enduring recent price levels within the 2 dotted purple lines suggested as potential trigger and stop levels for a short. Worth noting that previously similar support held the decline for 5 weeks mid Aug to mid Sept 2014 which if repeated this time while delaying the return to new lows means they could be deeper still (sub $100) if reaching channel bottom.


Look at the weekly stochastic in all of the previous weeks to all the previous runs up. Nothing happened until weekly %k touched 80. Then it rolled hard. It is very binary and a bit unusual. This current daily downdraft must muddle and price needs a bit more sideways. If it does, then then bull scenarios of the past still live on as the weekly engages >80.
ditz oaksacorn
Yes, that is interesting - but would you agree if it is going to take off it should start in the next couple of weeks?
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