Hello, and thank you for joining my analysis. Although I have been in the crypto scene for quite a while I decided to share my analysis for this first time. I hope you like it.
So let's go to the subject at hand! Our beloved
BTCUSD
. Over the last few weeks we have seen BTC going all the way up to the 9700 region before correcting to the 8800/9000 levels. I noticed that a lot of people turned immediately bearish but I think this correction is actually a good thing. BTC is enjoying and establishing strong support at the 8800/9000 level and is fueling up for a strong move to breach the USD 10k level. In the previous rally the bulls already broke important levels of resistance and in order to brake the heavy USD 10k resistance level the Bulls need to take a brake and refuel. Over the last month I noticed that the daily chart is much more useful and accurate to understand the upcoming BTC moves than the 4 hour chart hence I plotted this idea on the daily chart.
In the daily chart you can see that BTC found support within the upward moving channel and is now gearing up to breach the USD 10k and maybe even the 10.8k level. When BTC breaks the USD 10k I do expect it to retrace a bit to 9700/9800 (lowest to 9500 where we should have strong Fibb support) but once we pass 10.5 k we should find good support at the psychological 10k level.
Another thing I would like to point out is that the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicates a healthy position. We are not overbought at the moment and that is something the bulls need as fuel for their upcoming move. The Relative-Strength-Index (RSI) did obviously move a bit lower but is still at a healthy level and staying flat at the moment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed signs of rolling over slightly but didnt and I don't expect it to happen.
A move down would be less fortunate although at 8700 we should find strong support at the 200 day Exponential-Moving-Average (EMA) and at the 8500 we should find support (albeit less strong) at the 50 day Exponential-Moving-Average (EMA). Although I do not expect this to happen we will need to reasses what happens when BTC breaks down. One thing I noticed is that sell volume significantly declines at these levels but as I said we would need to re-evaluate the situation at that level.
On a more fundamental level I strongly believe that the market wants to retest the previous USD 11.8k level. The news about BTC and crypto in general has been quite positive and I see a bright future ahead. However, I also notice there is a lot of fear in the market due to the recent sell-offs and people 'flip' their position extremely fast. Although this happens frequently I'm not impressed by the sell volumes whenever this happens and at the same time it is perfectly normal to have these retracements at key levels. We never go up in a straight line :-) but I believe the trend is definitely moving upwards.
For now I expect that BTC is finding strong support on the bottom of the channel and is gearing up to breach the USD 10k level. One last comment I would like to make is about the USD 9.5k level. Over the last few days we experienced strong resistance at this level which coincides with the Fibonacci 23.6% level. However, since we already tested this level a few times I do expect that the bulls will break this level this time relatively easy.
The real bonus would be that we are about to make a Golden Cross (50 EMA crossing the 200 EMA again). That would fuel the rally really well!
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Enjoy your day!
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before investing.
Comment:
Yesterday BTC found good support at the bottom of the channel and we are still staying in it (enjoying support). The situation hasn't changed. CCI, RSI and MACD are still at the same level. Volume is quite low. Patience is key. Let's wait for that leg up!
Comment:
As expected we broke through the USD 9500 quite quickly. BTC nearly touched USD 9900 before consolidating around USD 9700 in preparation for USD 10k move. All indicators still look good. Let's go!
Comment:
After BTC slightly hit USD 10k it experienced a strong pullback but found support at USD 9300. We must not forget that USD 10k is a big psychological barrier and that it is not easy to break. Although we slightly went out of the channel i'm happy with the support that BTC found. Now we need some good momentum and volume to break USD 10k. Another failed attempt would be bad news in my opinion unless BTC would be able to find support at USD 9600/9700 after that attempt (effectively forming an ascending triangle which could be bullish) so let's keep a very close eye on this.