Horrorcoder

Bitcoin near a change of path

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In the last analysis I've traced a zone around 7200-7600$ as a confluence area and the price actually stationed here for some time. This price level is important because if it fails to act as support, price could retest the lower triangle trendline and the daily support @6900-7000$ or go even lower for a possible triple bottom pattern @6400-6500$.
This is what I think about the state of the last month bearish price trend.


Going back to the present BTC recently had a strong reversal candle on the 4hr and this could give a couple of different scenarios:
If the reversal candle is confirmed at the end of the day there could be enough confidence to move up but we need to see daily higher lows and higher high. Price will fluctuate into a small rising wedge and reach the upper triangle trendline, maybe a bit over since the first resistance is around 7900$.
This will the critical point
At those levels the price will face also the26EMA on the daily and probably be oversold on 4hr. This will surely bring some pullback and from here the buyer confidence will be tested: if price recovers and break above those level I think there will be a strong run up to 8600$.
Otherwise, we may go down with some force and continue the bearish trend at least to 7000$ and the lower triangle trendline

So 24-36 hours will be critical, on the daily chart is worth to pay attention to the MACD crossing as another bullish sign, RSI barely touched oversold (could be enough?) and STOCH is rising


What is really surprising me is that in the last months we witnessed a trend cycle with a timing so precise that is almost uncanny. Someone speculates that this is completely mere manipulation, I can't express about that (it really could be) and for sure is another important aspect to take into account, especially now since we are close the 5-6 June.


If this behavior is confirmed we could have still some days to trade and maybe see the short bearish scenario mentioned above, personally I'll wait a confirmation above 7800$ for placing a possible long position, this is a chaotic area within I don't suggest to trade if you are not really confident.
In any case things continue to tighten and well see soon what direction will BTC take!