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hadjithomas
Apr 12, 2021 6:39 AM

BTC USD Wyckoff Analysis & Altcoin Season - Bullish Long

Bitcoin / United States DollarCoinbase

Description

Hi

This is an attempt on BTC and Altcoin Wyckoff analysis.

here is a snapshot of the same chart but the 1 hour view


The analysis shows how BTC went through the Accumulation period (January 2018 - October 2020), then the Preliminary supply and a Re-accumulation phase (Oct 2020 - Feb 2021) and then finally broke out and entered Phase A of the Distribution period (end of February 2021).

We can then notice an accumulation within Phase B of the Distribution Period that might break out this week to enter Phase C of the Distribution period and break its All Time Highs. (Note that the line drawn is only for demonstrating/indication purposes, BTC will not necessarily reach those values or follow the same pattern as the drawn line).

I made a note that the Altcoin season starts during this Phase as this is what happened in the 2017-2018 BTC bullrun.

This also agrees with the fact that BTC Dominance (over alt cryptos) is starting to fall (currently at ~52.5% from 65% that was at the start of the year)

Another factor that shows BTC being bullish is the number of 'BTC Inflaw Addresses on exchanges' that has dropped showing a sign that there is an interest to hold and not sell BTC. (this is not shown on the graph but taken from a separate source).

Overall I see that we are entering the last leg of the bullrun and we are going to see BTC breaking its ATH and we will see Altcoins starting to Rise further.


let me know what your thoughts are :)


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This is not a financial advise. The aim is to receive comments for educational purposes.

Comment

The source for the 'BTC inflaw addresses on exchanges' is cryptoquant.com/overview/full/391?window=day
Comments
keepATLfunky
Thanks for the insight!
hadjithomas
A small update on BTC/USDt. It seems like the Distribution phases ended earlier than I anticipated.

Phase E of distribution is already here and it seems that we are now at the Re-distribution Cause. We are witnessing low buying Volumes and lower highs. If BTC doesn't break above the previous High of ~41k then I don't see BTC going further up sooner than it will go further down.

keepATLfunky
@hadjithomas, valid point and great analysis
hadjithomas
it seems that BTC is breaking the 57k resistance, we are likely to see Bitcoin rise further until at least the next resistance line (59,600usd)
hadjithomas
Update on the latest Dump

things are likely to recover, BTC already exit the downtrend but it will confirm after it goes above the ~57k resistance

jchoi24
Great analysis. Thanks a lot
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