4xForecaster
Short

Bears Bring Beef Jerky In Caves For Winter | $BTC #bitcoin $USD

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1933 36 31
Friends,

Predictive/Forecasting model remains bearish . Market for Bitcoin/Bitfinex has been weighed down, although some might perceive this as being a mere correction, bound into a sideways pattern - While this remains true as a matter of observation, intrinsic directional biases have favored bears for the time being - In fact, it has pushed price towards a "Worst Case Scenario" posted a few weeks back - Link:
$BTCUSD/BitFinex: Worse Case Scenario | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
.

Drawn in the charts are entrenchments in bears and bulls, namely:

1 - UPPER BULLISH ENTRENCHMENT waiting above the 639.80 mark

and

2 - LOWER BEARISH ENTRENCHMENT waiting below the 429.02 mark.

These are NOT targets. They represent likely levels of directional commitment, whereby a BACA would likely commit price in a ipsi-directional move.

Now, returning to that "might be a mere oscillation of price within a sideways move", one has to consider that more rope has been pulled in favor of bears over bulls. Hence, the probability of win here would belong to bears.

In addition, the Predictive/Forecasting Model has confirmed a bearish market reversal signal, and defined the following bearish targets:


QUANT-TARGETS:
1 - TG-1 = 416.27 - 17 SEP 2014

and

2 - TG-2 = 399.16 - 17 SEP 2014

QUAL-TARGET:

- TG-Lo = 276.87 - 17 SEP 2014


As you may recall, Quant-Targets are numerical targets defining FUTURE R/S levels, as price is expected to stop/go and post minor Fibonacci retracement levels (in the order of 0.114, 0.214, 0.382, and 0.618 ... Rarely up to 0.618 - where the first TWO values are complementary values to 0.886 and 0.786).

In contrast, Qualt-Targets are descriptive (i.e.: "Hi" or "Lo") targets, that have a LOW probability of getting hit, but IF and once reached, will carry a HIGH probability of defining a reversal (not just retracement) in price action, thus sending price likely above the mere 0.618, and instead to 1.131 and above relative to the preceding price swing which carved its extreme value.


OVERALL:

Market is under bear's butt. Bulls are being dragged for winter supply into the ursine cave, and only a significant event other than the predictive/forecast aforementioned could save their soul. Question here is: Who'd be buying.

Well played, institutional traders, for shaking the weak hands out of this market. But then again, if you recall my earliest charts in BTCUSD/MtGox, we talked extensively about Momental Lines, and the possibility of revising the lower levels BEFORE a significant push back to the upside - Here is a link to an such an older chart - See Link to BTC/BTCe - Weekly:
Momental Channels Interplay | #BTCUSD #LTCBTC #bitcoin #litecoin
.

Somehow, I have lost the MtGox charts, but regardless of the exchange's fate, it appears that it did provide a reasonable floor from which one would be able to assess the current situation ... Had it not tanked.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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PS: Thank you for your kind support, friendly referrals, warm "thumb-ups" and humbling re-post in other website. I very much appreciate the recognition. I hope it is returned to you in profits, be it in self-edification, and perhaps a bit of coins too - David
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
What do you think about this video that's been doing the rounds?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-TLA3j-ic4
Do you think this partly explains what's currently going on?
+1 Reply
Hello @cryptomojo - Sorry, I cannot open any links. What is the content saying, in essence?
- David
Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
Hi David, thanks for your analysis.

Can we use this analysis for the exchange Bitstamp as well, because in your previous update you calculated a difference of 30 dollars between Bitstamp and Bitfinex for the TG-Lo.

See your charts
$BTCUSD/BitFinex: Worse Case Scenario | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
(Bitfinex) and
snapshot
(Bitstamp) from 25 August.

For Bitfinex you calculated TG-1 (404.96), TG-2 (386.21) and TG-Lo (329.42). For Bitstamp TG-1 (385.06) and TG-Lo (359.31). Bitstamp is more bearish than Bitfinex as to price action the last couple of days.

Thank you.
+1 Reply
@eYou - Looks reasonable to me to use the tight correlation here - David
Reply
cryptomojo 4xForecaster

Apparently the POW algorithm is holding back bitcoin.
Every 10 mins 25 new btc are mined.
Currently that’s $1.8 million a day.
So if less than $650 million comes in this year then the value of btc will go down.
People who hold btc are paying for this via inflation caused by miners constantly dumping coins.

Ultimately people owning bitcoin are paying for decentralization of the network.
But as btc scales it becomes more centralized, as you need deeper pockets to build an effective purpose built mining centers.
So in time the blockchian will become monopolized and centralized to a few mega mining centers.

The solution is to create a revised more efficient algorithm that will restore the decentralization of btc.
So until bitcoin is accordingly updated most likely the price will continue to go down.
He reckons the technology already exists; it’s called delegated proof of stake, and is used by an altcoin called bitsharesx.
So may be he's pumping that coin XD ... but still interesting perspective on the state of Bitcoin.
+2 Reply
Very interesting stuff, @cryptomojo - Feel free to post any new edifying commentary such as this one. Makes perfect sense that the ever-continuing mining would be pulling the value down.

For now, charts still submit themselves to forecasting, so there's got to be some organized entropy here. An old chart I had posted (I can't find it anymore), called for a return valuation to a baseline growth. This mean a significant correction at coprolalic levels - David
Reply
cryptomojo 4xForecaster
Yes, any excuse for the whales to play the market.
Thanks for your insight.
I'll be sure to add anything relevant if I comes my way.. :D
+1 Reply
@cryptomojo - Thank you! David
Reply
devlspawn cryptomojo
This is definitely a factor in holding down bitcoin value now, but this particular part of the proof of work problem already has a solution in the bitcoin protocol and was always part of the plan. Every 4 years (approx) the reward gets cut in half. So in 2016 miners will only be getting 12.5 coins every ten minutes (or .9M/day at $500 val). At that time 75% of all coins that will ever exist will have already been distributed.

The real problem with POW is the money being burned on energy, hopefully that will change sometime in the future, but has no effect on price unless it causes people to abandon this crypto for another.
+1 Reply
devlspawn devlspawn
I also wanted to point out that as supply increases, causing price to fall, it becomes unprofitable for some miners to mine, who will shut off or switch their equipment to a different crypto. The difficulty rate only changes every 1600 blocks though, so this will cause blocks mined per day to slow, which will lessen the burden of supply. Price will be allowed to rise to a point where it is again profitable for those miners to re-enter the system.
+1 Reply
@devlspawn - This makes perfect sense - David
Reply
wonky_tonky cryptomojo
before last halving.. we had 50btc a every 10 min.. didnt make go price down did it? :) 2016 is next halving.. if anything .. try to get as much coins as possible :).. I know it.. whales know it. you know it.. unles there's something wrong with the protocol.. -> get more coins as cheap as possible..
Reply
LastBattle PRO wonky_tonky
but first, let's go down :) its 2 years away haha
Reply
Hey David, check out the following link for Mtgox's chart:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd
+1 Reply
Hello @LastBattle - Sorry, I do not check links. I got way too much trouble last time I did. What is this about?
- David
Reply
kakola 4xForecaster
Trouble? What links were you checking? meatspin.com? lemonparty.org? whoomp.org?
+1 Reply
Hi, @kakola - No, none of these. Another page from a friend, and it all came down crashing. Nothing malicious on his behalf, but I have decided to look at posted charts, not linked charts. Too busy having to deal with a crashing computer- David
Reply
LastBattle PRO 4xForecaster
If you are looking for the old Mtgox charts, 1 day trend is still available for viewing ;)

"Somehow, I have lost the MtGox charts, but regardless of the exchange's fate, it appears that it did provide a reasonable floor from which one would be able to assess the current situation ... Had it not tanked."
+1 Reply
@LastBattle - I was able to find 2 charts from about 9 months ago - FIRST one is BTC-MtGox vs. $GBP with an abysmal target of 170.89, forecast on 13 DEC 2013. The SECOND one is BTC/MtGox vs. $USD with an abysmal target 0f 270.61, forecast on 15 DEC 2013:


Chart-1 - BTC-MtGox vs. $GBP with an abysmal target of 170.89, forecast on 13 DEC 2013:
snapshot

Analysis:
BTCGBP - TG-1 = 179.89 - 13 DEC 2013




Chart-2 - BTC/MtGox vs. $USD with an abysmal target 0f 270.61, forecast on 15 DEC 2013:
snapshot

Analysis:
BTCUSD - #bitcoin - Target = 270.61


David
+2 Reply
One thumbs-up is far too few. Great analysis.
+1 Reply