If any of you reading this have been trading Bitcoin for longer than 2 years, most of you already know how much of a perfect head-game exchanges like to play with traders. 9 out of 10 times, they wave the obvious in front of you because they know that most traders trade with emotion, and not with patience.
They can get away with it, because this is the wild West of trading. Volatility at its "best"...
So in my previous ideas I've pretty much demonstrated to you that the measured move from 7200 to 10300 came in about perfectly with the 0.618 Fib-Time retracement zone. We get the move up to 10.3k, most people expect that 10.3k IS the retracement of the move down. Those that have utilized this Fib-Time tool recognize immediately that the retracement at 10300 was NOT the actual full retracement, because it didn't come anywhere near the minimum time-zone we would expect the full retracement to be at...
So we hit 10300, everyone thinks "This is it", people go long: 2 weeks later, most longs are liquidated or stopped out. It looks perfectly like retracement did happen, we are now in the trend continuation. Price looks extremely weak, looks like we're headed for a lower local low. And to most people, this would make total sense.
Here are the facts:
-Longs are super high... STILL... CME futures still have an abundantly high ratio of longs over shorts as well. -With longs being so high, did we not think exchanges were going to come looking for stops before the full retracement? Did you really think they were going to pay out all those longs, just like that? -We are currently at near 78.6% retracement of the move from 7200 to 10300... Shorting here is more suicidal than Jeffrey Epstein's death wasn't.
These exchanges are getting negligently obvious as far as exactly what they're wanting to do:
1) Stop out as many longs as possible. 2) Create a scenario where they can entice more and more people into a short position. 3) Screw the longs, screw the shorts - make a ton of money in the process.
If you're thinking of shorting here, do understand that you are shorting straight into heavy heavy resistance. Exchanges can manipulate, but when whales start feeding, there is only so much Tethers Finex can print or burn before they have no choice in the matter and the market does what it does.
Yes... Things look bleak, and they've painted a perfect picture of it. But practically ALL the technicals are calling their bluff.
Are they going to try longs' patience here? Absolutely. Guys, I've been long since about 8300. You don't think MY patience is wearing thin? BUT I don't trade on emotion.
WE ARE NOT GOING BELOW 7200... If they wan't to keep pushing the price lower here, I'll keep buying. But they won't stop me out of my long. This is the most perfect case and point of three major things:
1) Why you NEVER EVER trade on high margin. 2) Trade on patience, NOT emotion. 3) Technicals, technicals, technicals and technicals. We are WAAAAAY oversold on just about every technical indicator out there.
If you want to feed into their emotional games, just remember, they have a shiny ball in one hand and the next move in their other hand behind their backs. Welcome to trading Bitcoin...
Have had the exact same plan over the last couple weeks, 4hr been choppy af so i decided to zoom out and play the weekly higher low. My average is a bit shit not gunna lie (8400) but if 7300 holds ima ride this shit for a while. Don't usually come on ideas much anymore but wanted to see if anyone sees the same thing, really feels like big money is pushing us down before we get a fat bart back up and start a daily uptrend, BTC and almost all the alts have had declining bear volume on all the significant daily drops recently. We also got the monthly 12EMA as support coming into effect soon.
Zulu_Kilo
⋅
@zagaderp, I will admit that at this point and time, the bet to go long is “going against the grain”, per se... We are definitely betting our money on the fact that the correction is starting to come closer to being at an end.
I fully well remember the correction at 3k, and I admit that this may take longer than expected in the end.
But as traders, sometimes we look past just moving averages, look past the current situation, and see the bigger picture and interpret it the best way we can.
It’s too easy to be short here, and real traders don’t look at the easy. We look at potential and we put our money where our mouths are.
frykry
⋅
your ideas are totally conflicting!!!!
Zulu_Kilo
⋅
@frykry, you know what? I'll go ahead and take the time to respond to this because I think it's weak when people that have posted ZERO ideas themselves, start calling out others for either being wrong, or have conflicting ideas.
Yes. You are 100% correct. There are times when my ideas fully and completely conflict with each other.
Wanna know why?
First and foremost, it's called an IDEA... Not a FACT. It's a hypothesis based incomplete puzzle pieces. It's like trying to put a puzzle together that have thousands of pieces, and you don't even know what the picture fully looks like to go off of which piece fits where.
For ANY trader to have static ideas that don't evolve as the puzzle pieces come together more and more absurdly stupid.
And I'll also throw this out there. If you look at my ideas, I'm not like most traders that give you three thousand ways something could potentially go. I give specific details and prices. Take a look at most of the popular traders on here, and you will quickly find out that not only do their ideas conflict over time, but they like to give a hundred different scenarios so that they're never technically wrong.
That's not me. I give specific details. Whenever I'm wrong, it adds to the puzzle piece. My guess as to what the puzzle starts resembling changes.
So go ahead and start posting ideas first, and I want to come back a few months later so I can tell you exactly the same thing you told me: your ideas conflict each other, or that you were wrong. Go ahead... Start posting ideas. I'll wait.
frykry
⋅
@Zulu_Kilo, hey my friend, i do apologize for any inconvenience.....i didn't mean to be offensive.... u r absolutely doing great effort....really appreciated ...i have just asked for a clarification
HI,
Interesting. What do you think about this ultra low-volume since last week?
Zulu_Kilo
⋅
@correiapinheirojeremy, typically we see low volume during institutional accumulation/re-accumulation if you look at Wyckoff trading models. The volume comes with retail investment.
Ritchie-Rich
⋅
i like your idea ... i bought at 3500 last year and i sold some at 13k and kept some...
there are some people saying it will hit 2k before the ATH