There has been no update recently, because there is no inflection point in the market trend. I do not write articles for the sake of writing when I publish articles in TradingView. I only express the point when I feel it makes sense. For those readers who follow and trust me, it may be a long time before I see an article, so I apologize here.
The price of bitcoin has hit a new high. But we see two problems, one is that the "top divergence" of the daily line has not disappeared, and the other is that the digital currency fear index has not returned to the "extreme greed" position. The last 2 trading days of decline, should be the first time since the $43000 rally, two consecutive days of negative line.
Although there are many bulls in the market at present, the development of everything will follow the law of nature. Everyone who enters the market hopes that he is not the last one to "pick up the baton", but those who become the last "victim" of the people, are silly than others?
There are objective risks and opportunities in the market, but many people are willing to use idealistic logic to judge, which is the most terrible thing.
Returning to the current trend, we find a brewing "head and shoulders" pattern on the 2 hour chart. The left shoulder and head are clear, and if the right shoulder fails to break through $58,155 (the high of the left shoulder) and falls below the neckline (around $54,200), a standard "head and shoulder top" will be formed. The theoretical drop for the "head and shoulders" could be between 1 and 2 times, meaning it could fall to between $47, 000 and $40, 000.
At the same time, the formation of the head and shoulder top may lead to the formation of the daily line "top divergence", so from the perspective of adjustment time, it will be more than a month.
Conclusion: note whether the 2-hour "head and shoulder top" has formed and the impact on the market once it has formed (the condition for a "head and shoulder top" failure is to break the high of the left shoulder).