Disclaimer:If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Sawcruhteez Strategies: | | |
Consensio: Fully Bullish
Patterns: Start of a 4h bear channel Horizontals: R: $11,636 | S: $11,341 Trendline: Parallel Channel Parabolic SAR: In a recent podcast Tyler and I analyzed the way that Trading View is calculating the SAR. We have referred to original Welles Wilder documentation and determined that Trading View is not calculating it correctly based on the original formula. Therefore I am using the original calculation which puts the Weekly SAR at $13,880 instead of $10,452 which is where Trading View puts it.To learn more about the Parabolic SAR calculation [url=youtube.com/watch?v=Kppd3iwco9k ]click here and stay tuned for our solution. We plan to provide an alternative script and make it available for free on TV within the next week. Futures Curve: Contango with 3.96% spread Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0259% BTCUSDSHORTS: I am no longer going to track the BTCUSDSHORT ticker which gathers data from Bitfinex. That is due to the ability to claim a position on that exchange opposed to closing. This has huge effects on how the long:short ratio is calculated. So much so that I no longer think it is a good metric to track. [url=youtube.com/watch?v=IEaS9dnhCk4 ]Click here to learn more about claiming vs closing and how it affects long:short date. TD’ Sequential: Just got a weekly combo 13 and aggressive 13. Weekly A13 called the bottom. Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly wicked off the top of the cloud perfectly. Daily bearish TK cross above the cloud. 4h no trade zone. Relative Strength Index: Average Directional Index: Weekly is testing major resistance which indicates an exhausted trend. Daily rolled over, if it can roll back up > 20 then it would be a strong sign of continuation. Until then it is a strong indicator of continued consolidation / correction. Price Action: 24h: +2.32% | 2w: +6.28% | 1m: +50.33% Bollinger Bands: Testing daily MA Stochastic Oscillator: First weekly sell signal since December 2017
Summary: The most important technical to me right now is the weekly high volume shooting star that we got last Sunday. Shooting star and dragonfly dojis are generally my single most important indicator or a short - medium term reversal. That is especially true when on high volume.
Last week’s bearish wick and above average selling volume are the main reasons why I am expecting a major correction over the following weeks - months.
That being said right now is the time to pay very close attention. If we can breakthrough the top of the bear channel and then get back above $12,000 then all signs would be a go for continuation.
I am not expecting that but I am preparing for it. I have a strong bearish bias due to the high volume shooting star and therefore I have been selling spot and opening shorts over the past week. If the current market structure breaks to the upside then it is essential I am prepared to close shorts and reopen longs. Again I do not expect that but I do want to prepare for it.
As it stands I am confident that we will get another leg down to retest four figures and I have been positioning myself accordingly. That being said I am diligently preparing for alternative outcomes.
Even thought I do not necessarily agree with this one, I love your channel. Great content and simple but highly qualitative analysis.
Jocoin
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The wedge still in play and developing as expected although it took longer time but the wedge resistance has been confirmed with 4 times touch lower low. As well as 11/11400 area holding very nice. I am expecting breakout to upside in anytime very soon. Watch out!
Broom
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The trend is your friend, go LONG. Keep it simple or you get burned like this analysis
AlgoPhi
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It hit your stop loss quicker than you wrote this posting...
Alita99
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Tonights weekly close show on YouTube was very very good information, thanks alot and keep it up!
riotcontrol
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Hey Sawcruhteez, I'm glad you are still doing your thing. I have been tracking Wyckoff patterns during this consolidation and I have noticed very distinct accumulation patterns at the bottom of the triangle turn into distribution patterns at the top of the triangle. Additionally, I've also concluded this last area of consolidation will break down with selling pressure. And I'm saying this because I interpret it follows closer to a distribution archetype. I'm looking forward to see if my interpretation will bear fruit.
riotcontrol
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Before doing a retrospective, I just want to say I think we are seeing the opposite of something like "the big short", maybe "the big long". The volumes I see on these charts make me think that the same money or enough of the same money is being recycled on each bull break only for the losers to pay the premium for the next break up. This could conceivably go on for some time, hyping up BTC and sucking in new players on each run up. I'm not sure at what point this will all come crashing down but to be able to be trading at these levels without massive windfall down tells me the bots and the algos have it figured out such that BTC will continue to keep going higher given orderbook liquidity, fiat supply and BTC supply as factors. That being said, from my earlier post, I said that I was using Wyckoff patterns to track the price movements in the consolidation and the last phase prior to the breakout looked like a distribution pattern. I'm still wondering where I failed in this interpretation but regardless two signals stand out to me that could have helped clarify my view. The first was the support and resistance lines of the triangle. I typically draw my trendlines in shorter term timeframes to get quicker signals, but in this case I noticed that looking at them from longer term timeframes, the candles wicked in the ascending support lines and in the descending resistance lines, there was clear consolidation. That should have been clue number one. Clue number 2 should have been the reducing bearish activity, if it was really distriburtion I was seeing, then it would have completed its pattern at some point. I was looking for that weakness but I think the wicks off of support showed overexhuberant buyers stacking their positions so any distribution at the apex needs to come with volume or run the risk of being overrided by the long term bullishness.
Livingstone821
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@Sawcruhteez Mind putting up new thoughts? Looking forward to what you think will happen.
justclueless123
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well it was funny - i was bullish just b 4 saw your point of view ( and im still )
for me there is 2 acsending triangles -- smaller inside bigger-
but since im still to green and emotioonal i decided to rise my stop loss accordng to your post- shit :)
it hited my stop loss and sky rocketing ( and hit your stop loss)