Bitcoin - Worst case scenarios on the weekly chart

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar

In such a highly charged situation it´s always good to return to the bigger picture.

Here on the weekly chart the general uptrend is still intact. Basically Bitcoin             is just back where it was last autumn…

But if you take the whole rally starting at 162 USD in autumn 2015 up to the recent high around 19,886 USD in December 2017 and apply the usual fibonacci retracement levels the zone around 7,568 USD becomes the 61.8% retracement . This zone has been lost on Monday without any significant reaction by the bulls.

Therefore we have to look at the next lower retracement level which will be the 76.4% around 4,818 USD. This level coincides with Bitcoins             high at 5,000 USD last September.. Therefore technically it is very likely that Bitcoin             will continue to fall towards around 4,500 – 5,000 USD over the coming weeks maybe months.

This price target is also confirmed by the fact that Bitcoin             has broken below its green uptrend channel of the last 11 months. Even though it is currently fighting to get back into it down the road it is more likely that this channel will become history meaning obsolete.

If all hell breaks loose the final “worst case” destination for this correction could be another and even stronger uptrend-line currently around 1,900 USD but rising every week. This coincides with the lower bollinger band (1,584 USD) on the weekly chart which still has to play catch up with current market levels.

Just looking at the big picture I assume the absolute worst case scenario would be sitting around 2,000 USD. Yet much more likely is a final low around 5,000 USD.
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