RogueDave

BTCUSD - The FOMO is so thick, a chainsaw is required to cut it.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Stepping back a bit from Elliott Wave Analysis (yeah, I do that too, but there are so many other voices...), the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) radiates all over the BTCUSD charts. What my experience has been, is that the FOMO does not lead to sustainable breakouts. Key word: Sustainable.

It is most obvious on the Kraken data feed. It actually traded at an ATH , for a while, a few days back.


On the other charts from other exchanges, we can see this too. Depending which dots or data points are connected, all of the charts can display a rising wedge , a Bearish pattern leading to a breakdown. Should this happen, it may act to calm the BTC enthusiasm enough to establish a Sustainable bullish pattern that eventually leads to sustainable new highs, a the kick-off of Elliott Wave V for BTC .




A rising wedge is the perfect chainsaw therapy to cut through the FOMO and develop a sustain base from which a long run set of higher highs can be established.


Comment: Why this post is now invalid. Anyone reading this Idea, please see my reply to TomPower below (copy embedded here) and see this link.

"In a nutshell, a large trader or group of traders, a whale amongst whales, decided to force the price higher. As I was watching 4 exchanges within TradingView, it became clear the dominant market leading the breakout was BitFinex.

There is public access to the BitFinex order book here: https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd/15m...

What I had seen in the order book, from time to time, was the same Spoofing the article's author wrote about. At another exchange I trade on, and have carefully watched the order book of, it has also exhibited the same Spoofing activity. HUGE orders (thousands of BTC or 100's of thousands of ETH) near but not on the bid/ask, with closer in Big orders, intervening to block actual transaction on the spoofing order. They appear to reverse a pricing trend or to support/goose the trending price's directionality (to drive bids higher, or asks lower). Then they disappear, sometimes in minutes, sometimes in small time segments. Illegal, supposedly in US markets, but they still occur. Saw it rampant in equities when I was a portfolio manager. Algorithmic trading and API interfaces easily enable this activity.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/spoo...

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-... "

Comments

I so wish I could hit agree more than once. I keep clicking the thumb's up, but it's just not happening! In my opinion, FOMO is the single biggest problem that is correctable that people have when trading. If you're not asking yourself, "Is this just FOMO?" before you hit the commit button on a trade, you're not doing it right.
+2 Reply
RogueDave Primalsteam
@Primalsteam, Thank you for your comment, and acknowledgement. The crypto-space can move quickly, but it also moves both directions. Buy beware, and, would be seller, don't stay greedy.
Reply
btc to 2000
Reply
RogueDave feattte
@feattte, refer to my reply to Tim below.
Reply
RogueDave feattte
@feattte, See my post to Tom below.
Reply
Wtf dave. What happened here. Where's your down wave
Reply
RogueDave TomPower
@TomPower, Hi Tom. The explanation is here:

In a nutshell, a large trader or group of traders, a whale amongst whales, decided to force the price higher. As I was watching 4 exchanges within TradingView, it became clear the dominant market leading the breakout was BitFinex.

There is public access to the BitFinex order book here: https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd/15m

What I had seen in the order book, from time to time, was the same Spoofing the article's author wrote about. At another exchange I trade on, and have carefully watched the order book of, it has also exhibited the same Spoofing activity. HUGE orders (thousands of BTC or 100's of thousands of ETH) near but not on the bid/ask, with closer in Big orders, intervening to block actual transaction on the spoofing order. They appear to reverse a pricing trend or to support/goose the trending price's directionality (to drive bids higher, or asks lower). Then they disappear, sometimes in minutes, sometimes in small time segments. Illegal, supposedly in US markets, but they still occur. Saw it rampant in equities when I was a portfolio manager. Algorithmic trading and API interfaces easily enable this activity.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/spoofing

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-spoofing/
Reply
RogueDave TomPower
@TomPower, See the post link represented by the embedded graphic.
Reply
nice analysis ^^
Reply
RogueDave AzrulAzir
@AzrulAzir, Thank Dian! I have respect for your chart work, too!
Reply
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