@pensador84, I agree, just wait for August Recess in the US. Only a week away. All the big shots are away on holidays. That's when the retail investors will decide BTC's fate in the mid term. Institutional investors and whales can easily make these few pumps before cashing out so they can laugh at all the moon-fools on the golf course.
@CryptoWaveSurfer420, The thing that gets me as they even rationalize BTC as a safe haven asset when it's only been around for 10 years or so. I'm a long term cryptocurrency investor.But I feel the writing on the wall in charts and price history with volume.
BTC has never gone through a market crash like 08' and all asset classes are risk off when that happens. Gold feel 30% in the 08 crash and cash is king. Safe haven assets are usually in times of war or natural disaster.
I do see a big drop in BTC coming as the equities market is running thin on its rally. Alot of retail investors think they control the market,When 95% of the volume is controlled by 5%
You could MAYBE make this case if you were showing Bitcoin's price in a scarce currency, like Gold, but the total M2 money supply of dollars inflated by 25% in LAST QUARTER ALONE - and this will only accelerate with a new round of stimulus around the corner. It is in a drawn out accumulation phase at the moment - and retail money is desperately chasing tech stocks at the moment.
I'm afraid you fail to account for the fact that dollars are limitless in supply, being created at an increasingly accelerated pace, and with the economic destruction that has taken place there is no end in sight to this money printing. Thus, Bitcoin and Gold will be the the "TINA" currencies of the near future ("There Is No Alternative").
Price in USD it is headed to $55-95k by end of 2021 and $288k by 2024, as per the Stock to Flow model.....
@TradeHappyKyle, Most of us aren't short or long right now .its a the newbies that are trying to forecast a massive bully rally now.
Let me give you some perspective money printing or not the effects takes years to be played out in the market see QE from '09-12 finally hit the market '14-17. Additionally the only thing that is a safe heaven asset is cash, and to a less extent gold and silver.
All assets go down during a crash yes even gold went down 30% in the 2008-2009 crash. No asset is immune as risk is off not on with a steep market correction. Limitless dollar printing hasn't happened yet its not near 100 trillion in the usa as that would give rise to hyper inflation.
BTC has NEVER gone through a steep market correction and weathered it. I'm talking like 2008 style crash with panic on the streets. It will be its first test run of it, and I personally believe based on the PE and VC market I'm in. That its due for a massive correction. As these guys have $3 trillion usd sitting since January 2020 in the usa alone , and are waiting to buy on the cheap.
This whole pandemic is the biggest transfer of wealth of the century. But all assets will decline so yes sub 6k btc is still in the cards before we get to 100k. The bull market won't start until 8-10 months from now. Its 2/3 done accumulation not done yet.
Your timing is off 2022 is the bull run and 2026 is $250k.
I'll change my opinion when I see markets change on the weekly and monthly
I completely agree with your post. Look at the pathetic and declining volume since the March lows. Bitcoin has been incredibly disappointing since the halvening especially. It's volume is nowhere to be found and every breakout has zero follow through. Investors are getting turned off at the moment by Bitcoin as it is not yielding any volatility worth investing it at the moment. Maybe it will change someday, but it's been a fairly poor investment since January 2018.
Comments
BTC has never gone through a market crash like 08' and all asset classes are risk off when that happens. Gold feel 30% in the 08 crash and cash is king. Safe haven assets are usually in times of war or natural disaster.
I do see a big drop in BTC coming as the equities market is running thin on its rally. Alot of retail investors think they control the market,When 95% of the volume is controlled by 5%
I'm afraid you fail to account for the fact that dollars are limitless in supply, being created at an increasingly accelerated pace, and with the economic destruction that has taken place there is no end in sight to this money printing. Thus, Bitcoin and Gold will be the the "TINA" currencies of the near future ("There Is No Alternative").
Price in USD it is headed to $55-95k by end of 2021 and $288k by 2024, as per the Stock to Flow model.....
Best of luck to you, if you short.
Let me give you some perspective money printing or not the effects takes years to be played out in the market see QE from '09-12 finally hit the market '14-17. Additionally the only thing that is a safe heaven asset is cash, and to a less extent gold and silver.
All assets go down during a crash yes even gold went down 30% in the 2008-2009 crash. No asset is immune as risk is off not on with a steep market correction. Limitless dollar printing hasn't happened yet its not near 100 trillion in the usa as that would give rise to hyper inflation.
BTC has NEVER gone through a steep market correction and weathered it. I'm talking like 2008 style crash with panic on the streets. It will be its first test run of it, and I personally believe based on the PE and VC market I'm in. That its due for a massive correction. As these guys have $3 trillion usd sitting since January 2020 in the usa alone , and are waiting to buy on the cheap.
This whole pandemic is the biggest transfer of wealth of the century. But all assets will decline so yes sub 6k btc is still in the cards before we get to 100k. The bull market won't start until 8-10 months from now. Its 2/3 done accumulation not done yet.
Your timing is off 2022 is the bull run and 2026 is $250k.
I'll change my opinion when I see markets change on the weekly and monthly