We are currently at a critical moment on bitcoin, hovering above a major support level (purple line) which has been mentioned in my previous bitcoin ideas (linked). Weather this will be broken or not is unknown but the direction of the breakout of the "limbo section" (as i have no idea what it is doing while in this section) labeled on the chart. Based on Elliott wave theory, this shows how critical the hidden level 6340 is for spotting a sell off early. If this level breaks below, the bullish wave count is no longer valid, and we should assume that we are in a corrective structure. Short positions can be taken after dropping below this level. Just because it drops below the level does not mean that the trend can not continue up for longer, it just suggests that the current structure is corrective. If bitcoin does break market structure there is a possibility for a capitulative selloff to 5k or even a possibility of 4k. So in a condensed sentence: if price breaks below 6340 before breaking 6690, look for shorting opportunities even if price raises above 6690 again. I would look at my linked ideas for a look at my wider view.
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Okay holding fire on those shorts now. Still bear biased but no safe long term trades I can see yet
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Still not the healthiest looking bull trend, to look bullish we would need a nice bull run now to be a wave 3 the wave 5. Still bear biased to me but not signs yet for a safe short trade until we see some weakness in the bulls.
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By height I mean that wave 5 should be approximately 10% gain to be a healthy bull trend
I shorted at 6780. Some may say it's a stupid move to short at the bottom, but I don't think we have seen the bottom yet, and i don't think it will go past 6900. Even if it will prove to be a short rally till 7800-8100, it will just be a missed opportunity for me. I think after that, lower supports will be tested again. And if the support fails, well, it will get ugly, as you said. If not, that will be the start of the trend reversal, or at least the start to the acumulation zone, with sideways trading. Maybe we are already into accumulation zone.
I really believe in btc and i wish the rally to new ath start now, but i think the reality is a little different, and don't favor the impatient. So far as a beginner i lost enough money while being impatient :)
JamesRkaye
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@Sylkme, nice. I am still trading this plan but waiting for bulls to show some weakness before I join you shorting
Sylkme
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@JamesRkaye, nice chart, thanks! We'll see how it plays out in the next days
Sylkme
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@JamesRkaye, I still lack experience to time my moves right and take advantage of every move, but i think the bigger picture i got right
I really believe in btc and i wish the rally to new ath start now, but i think the reality is a little different, and don't favor the impatient. So far as a beginner i lost enough money while being impatient :)