Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is closing the monthly (1M) candle today and to the surprise of most, it is near the November 2021 All Time High (ATH). In fact it is exactly at the level where the ATH monthly candle (Nov 2021) made its closing. As a result if the month of February closes today above it, we will have a new ATH monthly closing!
** The importance of the monthly closing ** Why is that so important? Because every time in history BTC closed a 1M candle above the closing of the previous ATH candle closing, it started the Parabolic Rally Phase of the Bull Cycle and never looked back until the Cycle top. This is a key level as there were 2 times it got tested but as the 1M candle didn't close above the previous ATH candle closing (August 2012 and June 2019), the price got rejected and took numerous more months before the next test and eventual break-out.
** The 1M RSI and Fib bands ** It is important to highlight that on the tests that were successful and made a new 1M candle close above the previous ATH candle closing, the 1M RSI was overbought above 70.00 (blue circle and arrow), while the 2 times it failed, the RSI was below 70.00. Also during those successful tests, the 1M candle was recently detached from the Fib MA Multiple 3 (blue trend-line) and in reached Multiple 5 (yellow trend-line) within the next 2 months maximum.
** What's next if successful? ** This indicates that if today's monthly candle closes above our critical level, we should see $81000 by April! And if you want to make a rough estimate of the top of the Cycle, it should be at or marginally below Multiple 7 (red trend-line) with a fair projection being $150000. You should also consider to start profit taking once the 1M RSI approaches its historic Lower Highs trend-line, which has timed the pricings of all Cycle tops. And with the exception of the last one, that was on a Double Top on the Lower Highs.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin makes a closing above the ATH 1M candle closing today and if so, will it hit 81k by April? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
Excellent analysis. As always. I personally believe that we will have a new pre-halving ATH around March 21st (2016 fractal) with a top located between 79k and 81k (higher highs trend line on the monthly TF). A post-halving correction will follow and approximately 6 months of consolidation above the old ath (64k/69k) forming an inverse H&S pattern. Once the neckline is broken (and maybe retested) we will explore parallel universes (if the price trend imitates that of Gold after the debut of ETFs in 2004) with a top of the cycle between September and December 2025. It's just science fiction ;) but BTC teaches that reality surpasses the imagination. It's always nice to interact with Tradingshot, among the best analysts, masters and research stimulators. Thank you
TradingShot
⋅
@OG_cRoW, Thank you for your kind compliments, the pleasure is all mine! And that inverse H&S scenario isn't that far fetched either!
creepymonster
⋅
Yes. But i can't understand, why is it growing so early? The halving will be only in 2 months. The market has changed so much?
radiohead007
⋅
So it's March 1 now, what was the number we needed to clear, did we clear it?
TraderTilki
⋅
NOPE!!!
MyCryptoParadise_Nathan
⋅
I appreciate your in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's monthly candle closing and its potential implications for future price action.
Setupsfx_
⋅
Agree with you! 80k is next possible target
reinerpro110
⋅
very good analysis. Can you please write whether the month-end closing was successful?