So at the moment it's difficult to say what will play out on the short term. We can see a clear on the right and the possible on the left. This says we need one more wave up, but that is not always the case. During extreme weakness, it could simply just drop out of it now. Normally, maybe 80% of the time we would see one more wave up. Just see some weakness at the moment that i am not sure it will happen. Hanging around the support line for a few hours already, usually a sign there is no power to push it up.
Low time frame we have a small range between 4200 and 4300. A break of 4300 could mean the will make that last wave up, a break of 4200 will probably mean what i mentioned above. The target of the is still around 4600, therefore i though we should have had a bigger correction yesterday to around 4000//3950, make a solid there and make that last move up towards the target. But never went that low and started to move up quickly again. This looks like strength but that is not always the case.
Bigger picture plan i had in mind, was either turning down again from the 4600ish to the 3K levels again, or to make a right shoulder if it would stay above the 4200ish for a big . This is not that likely, because that would mean a V shape low will happen. Indicating the crash mode is already over and done with. Anything can happen in crypto, but i don't think this is very likely to happen. But just being prepared for all options.
At the moment it looks like we have a triangle in the making on the low time frame, this might give a break of the 4200/4300 range. If we get above or below this range, things might get clearer. Alts are not giving any clear signs as well, some look quite good but others did not even move up the past 2 days like ETH'. A few show bull flags in the making while others (like XRP') show bear flags. Like LTC' and NEO' show possible forming, with only the neckline that has to break. So i do not see clear signs yet that the market is willing to make another push up. A break of these bull flags/ would give a much better indication.
For me it means, that if we can not even get above the 4450ish, it will be a sign and probably start to drop again with the high being set at 4400. If we do reach the 4600 it will depend on where the correction down will go from there. At the moment i can not give a long term direction, IMO it would be crazy to even try that. I prefer to do it step by step for the time being. We have at least a solid low now, a good around 3500. So even if we start to drop , we could be forming higher lows from now. 3800ish would be a good level to form that higher low. In case we drop big and hard and even break that support, i would probably mean this whole up move was just a big correction (the one i mentioned the past week) and that we see another big drop below the 3500.
So if we move up but price slows down around 4450/4500, the big will probably be in play (blue line). If we break the 4200ish now, the red line might be in play. It might be an important day, which can give us a probable direction for the coming week or so. As i am finishing up this analysis, we have made a small bounce up, which gives the blue line and the from the chart on the right a new chance to succeed.
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When looking at the volume, it also shows yesterdays rally is loosing strength. So normally only a volume boost could give this more chance to move up
At the moment it's staying close to the resistance of that bear flag i mentioned above. So there is chance it will make a move upwards and invalidate that bear flag
The uptrend support line of Bitfinex is at the same spot as this support line of the wedge we can see here
So a max of 4280ish, can still work, but a break of 4300 means it's 80% sure over with the H&S.
If the bulls can fight off this H&S, i don't think we will see any big movements. Bigger picture shows a potential big bull flag (4400/4100). Probably means we keep moving inside of that flag for another day or so.
On the Bitfinex chart we can see the selling volume on these drops have not been that high. When the channel broke there is no panic selling to be seen. This is in favor of the bulls. But all these up movements can still just be a retest of former support. Which is perfectly normal as well. But if we start to drop again, volume has to increase for the bears.
Look at that red line :).
Anyway, the H&S is in play now, as long as we stay below the 4100ish, the H&S is in full play with a target around 3800. At the moment it's doing a retest of the neckline
If we keep of dropping with this speed, we could be seeing the 3500 the coming days as well. Retesting the big support there, but can't say yet if it will hold or not. Read my primary analysis to see the main thoughts and what just happened. Makes you see things more clearly now of what is going on.
My best guess now is, might be making a big bear flag between 3850/4050
Typical for everything that is wrong with the crypto world and why we are where we are right now.
Just my opinion :)
We broke several important supports during this drop, so my current thought, is bears are still in control, even if the W bottom plays out. Volume could make a difference.
It's weekend, so usually we don't see any action, but that has been different since the 6K broke. So anything can happen. If the 4000 seems to be too heavy, it could mean a fast drop to 3800 or even lower can happen.
There is at least some resistance i am seeing around 4150. So if we break it and make a decent move to lets say 4200 at least, i might be wrong about my original assumption. So far i can see rejection, unless it holds above the 4100 and makes a bull flag out of this.
So watching to see how it goes. This is why planning ahead is so important
Funding is ending in 8 min on bitmex, 0.11% shorts pay longs, its not huge but always plays a part this close to ending. That is slightly in favor of the bulls as well.
So not much to say, expect that staying above the 4110 is bullish and shows bulls are stepping in. But volume is dropping (which is normal in bull flag) but shows buying volume might be drying up.
For the rest, nothing changed on the previous update. Just zooming in here
So i gave it a decent chance earlier this week, but because the bulls simply failed to reach the 4600, it shows the market is probably not ready for it yet. For now i personally prefer a retest of the 3500 zone and THEN make a new attempt.
A break of 4200 would be a small step and a break of 4300 would be a bigger step towards that inverse H&S. As long as we don't see a break of 4200, i don't see it happening.
Now if we would drop towards 4050 and find support again and move towards the current high, than those chances for the inverse H&S would increase
If we do drop from here to the 4120, a small H&S might get triggered if that support breaks. If that happens, i think that bearish scenario will play out. So a drop towards the 3800 or maybe even lower.
Thanks in advance!
Big tip, scroll back through historic charts, and find out why certain patterns fail one moment and succeed at another moment.
Out of curiosity, how many different assets would you say you analyse each day? How many do you look at on a weekly basis? And how do you discover new assets? Do you just scroll through endless lists in search of opportunities?
Perhaps I'll make it a goal to look at 2 non cryptos a day :)