Unless Bitcoin manages a lasting break above 300, the apex of the descending cone points to 40 by year end.
The band is becoming very narrow. to achieve this would mean a lowering in realised volatility which would mean an acceptation of the new price paradigm (a slow death in other words).
I like watching bitcoin only because for me it is a great case study of human behaviour (more than other indices that have macro forces affecting the price too).
Comments
altcoinbonanza
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Yes the cone is pointing into the abyss but don't be so quick to give up on this digital currency/asset just yet. There is too much at stake with global awareness and global adoption for the abyss to swallow Bitcoin and for it to disappear. Too much venture capital, personal investments, too much interest in the blockchain and it's awesome capabilities, too much innovation, too much curiosity, too much freedom, too much genius, too much freedom of speech, too much technological breakthrough, too much movement, too much less government, too much secrecy, too much in the future for the abyss to swallow Bitcoin and destroy it's beauty. Can Bitcoin go lower, yes. Will Bitcoin go away, No!
YaKa
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You are a bitcoin preacher - I respect that. You stated your opinion. Fine. Let's agree to disagree.
The promotion of bitcoin should not be made on its price which is exactly the reason why it will fail.
altcoinbonanza
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If you believe Bitcoin is going to zero I respect that also. At least you believe that it will. Many will not admit to that. I on the other hand believe Bitcoin will be the forerunner and the Goldman Sachs of digital currencies. Does Bitcoin have its flaws, of course. Are there other rivals that can take its place, yes. Now though Bitcoin has a beautiful foundation and tremendous lead over other competitors. Love your graphs and input.
YaKa
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I just talk price.
Without disputing the benefit of the concept, I think there is something a bit strange: on one hand the fact that the price of bitcoin is fluctuating has brought a lot of interest and publicity to it. On the other hand, that fact that it is too volatile may be detrimental after all.
Douglas-Squirrel
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While most of the demand is probably speculation, It has some niche areas that require it's usage: those involving illicit markets (silk road type ventures). While one can assume that most users of these markets do not hold bitcoin given it's volatile nature, these markets do have marketcaps that require a certain amount of fiat value in BTC at any given time. I don't know what the sales of these markets are, and they don't publish their data, but I think they are big enough that bitcoin won't go below a dollar or near it. I often wonder what that floor is, could it be what BTC was at while silk road was at it's heyday? Who knows, but until there is a transfer medium that dethrones bitcoin from the top crypto currency used for those markets it will have some value so people using these markets can conduct transactions. I don't think bitcoin won't be dethroned by a more anonymous and faster crypto for illicit markets, but until it is, I doubt it will go to zero. What do you think?
YaKa
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Doug, that is accurate and smart. Yes, as long as there is a need, there will be a value to it. which could be anywhere.. And as long as below 300, this value could be lower.. or much lower.
ChartArt
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Fundamental misunderstanding. Bitcoin is digitally modeled to be scarce, so the price is implemented to be a core feature. Here is the description of BItcoin by the inventor:
"In this sense, it's more typical of a precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value."
Bitcoin was massively overvalued in 2013. Yes, the price could fall more in 2015, but "to zero" is unlikely.
YaKa
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zero, 1, 10, 20, 30, 40... we are at 250... all those figures are very close from here... if it gets to 40, 20 is possible and so on.
IvanLabrie
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IF price makes it unsustainable to 'mine' with huge datacenters that don't pay the power costs...how can Bitcoin survive?
That's the only fundamental qualm here.
harposox
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I think you answered your own question. :) There's ample reason that market makers won't run this thing too far into the ground—there's too much money to be made in keeping it alive. There's a lot of psychology in play here... market makers need to figure out how low they can force the price without completely destroying the underlying confidence in the market.
Remember, what we are currently witnessing isn't just the unwinding of a price bubble, it's also an unwinding of a mining bubble. Prices will be suffocated until a sufficient number of mining competitors go bust. The biggest mining operations also run their own trading desks—there's no way these operations will take this thing to 0 after investing hundreds of millions of dollars in mining infrastructure. This bear market can last as long as these industry leaders can stay solvent, but IMO, no longer than that. The price HAS to rebound or there's no market left to manipulate.