After the interest that the revised version of my Logarithmic Channel model attracted, I thought I'd extend it by adding a few more elements, most notable of which Tradingshot's very own Golden 51%-49% Ratio!
Basically I've been asked continuously to make an update on that legendary chart, so here is an extension, though I promise I will also make an update with the original minimal pattern. For those who don't know how this Ratio works, it basically suggests that on each Cycle, the phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically it claims that the Halving is roughly at the middle of each Bull Cycle.
As the Logarithmic Growth Channel suggest that November 2022 was the absolute bottom of the 2022 Bear Cycle, we can now use the next Halving (number 4) and apply the 51%-49% Golden Ratio. Halving 4 is projected to be on May 26 2024 and based on the Ratio that puts the High of Cycle 5 near the end of November 2025. On every Cycle, once the Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line broke, BTC started officially the Rise, which after the Halving turns parabolic.
Do you think a 200k Bitcoin realistic during Cycle 5 based on the combination of this two patterns? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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As we can see, the logarithmic growth curve was broken when the price consolidated below the lower deviation line. We could absolutely reconfigure this tool with new settings to end up with the price now evolving on the lower deviation but that would mean we don't respect previous historical lows and highs for the constitution of our log curve. It would be even more inaccurate to use any manual drawing tool. Another way to look at macrocycles evolution is by using moving averages. Starting from 1950, SP500 has been evolving on the monthly MA50 (= weekly MA200) for ten years, before evolving toward the monthly MA100, MA200 and MA300. Now after ten years of existence, BTCUSD has finally broken the monthly MA50 dynamic support. The monthly MA100 is currently evolving at $12800 precisely and there is a considerable probability it could flash crash below by -20% like it did with the MA50 in 2015. Macroeconomics and central banks policies are also confirming this probability. To conclude, time axis volumes can confirm or unconfirm price action (candle or pattern structures). Following a capitulation with huge selling volumes, we usually see huge buying volumes instantaneously following. This is not happening right now. Although it could confirm a drop toward 12k or just mean the price is going to range for a very long time without ever breaking below 15k again, it definitely means we will not see a fast recovery. Here we can also see price axis volumes, telling us there is a void of past liquidity until 12k. It's a good place to DCA, but you would be irresponsible to open an outerday long position right now and for this reason I can not concur with the choice of this LONG banner.
louistran_016
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@GreenValleyTrading, while i agree with the logic and price target around 12 - 13K, saying the logarithmic growth curve was broken is incorrect. The logarithmic growth by definition always reference all data points, high, low, anomalies... during price history. If BTC wicks down to 10,000 range, a new log curve is simply drawn to include the new data, indicating less exponential future growth rate Tradingshot can absolutely call for the bottom, it's up to each individual timeframe and risk tolerance to size and accumulate. 10K, 12K, 16K... are all guess works until proven otherwise, and they are especially irrelevant if investors can hold for another full cycle
wargolynch
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@louistran_016, Reassure yourself like you want... If your log curve is not touching all historical lows/highs, it's incorrect. Any bot would see it without even looking at a visual chart. The 0.1$ wick is not less important than any other wick because BTC has been valued below 0.1$ when it was only exchanged against electricity. It's very old data. Can you ask the log curve to both include the older 0.1$ wick and the COVID crash one? No, meaning the curve is broken. If you're so sure that's all just guess work and everything is useless and you should just DCA since 69k, maybe you should just leave.
louistran_016
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@GreenValleyTrading, i only implore if a flash crash happens, a new log curve will be drawn to touch all historical lows/highs; and fully aware of additional 18% drop on BTC and 33% drop on TOTAL is very natural. Whether it will crash 18%, 30% or anything in between no one knows, so for long term holders it makes sense to scale in (possibly 10% total allocation each time) glanced through a few of your comments, seems you are passionate at forcing your ideas to people's throat, anyone believes anything different is dumb
wargolynch
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@louistran_016, "Following a capitulation with huge selling volumes, we usually see huge buying volumes instantaneously following. This is not happening right now. Although it could confirm a drop toward 12k or just mean the price is going to range for a very long time without ever breaking below 15k again, it definitely means we will not see a fast recovery." "It's a good place to DCA, but you would be irresponsible to open an outerday long position right now and for this reason I can not concur with the choice of this LONG banner." Literally my conclusions. You're the only one forcing anything. lol You can not anymore get a valid log curve by including the 0.1$ wick that goes back to when BTC was exchanged against energy alone. What else to add?... You're plenty of bad faith and too lazy to look by yourself, that's all... Just get a life, really. :/
FallingWedge
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BTC is growing slower than we expect. I am wondering what projection these curves had in 2015? These are just lines, nothing more and nothing less. Unfortunately we can't bet on few lines. Otherwise it would be a game for 6 years old 😁
wargolynch
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@FallingWedge, In 2015? Those were the same. The projection did work for a long time actually! But you're right since an asset can not just dumbly follow a log curve forever just because inflation is exponentially diminishing. lol Either with lookintobitcoin's original settings or those including the COVID crash, the price has now consolidated (=/= flashcrash) below the support line. New settings are now excluding 2009 and 2010 data, they do not work.
wargolynch
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@FallingWedge, Here is an attempt to draw a log curve starting in January 2009, when the ledger started and BTC was only exchanged against energy. It's based on the first hypothetical trendline, meaning the 0.1$ wick from October 2010 is virtually excluded in these new settings, exactly like OP did I guess. In fact he was right to exclude this wick considering 2009's hypothetical data! It would have been nice to explain it in the description though. Then some liberty was taken: in a first time, the historical low of 2011 was not mathematically but visually respected; in a second time, the deviation was customized in order to include or exclude the COVID flash crash wick. Result? In every case and this in despite of staying flexible with our method, the price is now consolidating below the lower deviation of the logarithmic growth curve. The projection is broken.
miguelkruste
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I do think 200K is possible.
JoyBoyVegae
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Y’all should chill. We aren’t bottom yet. We still have the Feds decision to worry about. From that drop and direction going that’s a bear flag. I am still bearish
Another way to look at macrocycles evolution is by using moving averages.
Starting from 1950, SP500 has been evolving on the monthly MA50 (= weekly MA200) for ten years, before evolving toward the monthly MA100, MA200 and MA300.
Now after ten years of existence, BTCUSD has finally broken the monthly MA50 dynamic support. The monthly MA100 is currently evolving at $12800 precisely and there is a considerable probability it could flash crash below by -20% like it did with the MA50 in 2015.
Macroeconomics and central banks policies are also confirming this probability.
To conclude, time axis volumes can confirm or unconfirm price action (candle or pattern structures).
Following a capitulation with huge selling volumes, we usually see huge buying volumes instantaneously following. This is not happening right now.
Although it could confirm a drop toward 12k or just mean the price is going to range for a very long time without ever breaking below 15k again, it definitely means we will not see a fast recovery.
Here we can also see price axis volumes, telling us there is a void of past liquidity until 12k.
It's a good place to DCA, but you would be irresponsible to open an outerday long position right now and for this reason I can not concur with the choice of this LONG banner.