gainsbeast
Long

BTC is probably going up and biased bears are going to get REKT

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Since only 1-2% here on TV can actually chart, I thought this colourful and distracting chart would look appealing to the masses. However, I have put in some actual knowledge that will break the minds of blinded Elliot bears. It is called Wyckoff.

We have had distribution, it was quick and sharp, since then we have had a period of accumulation with peaks of retail fomo breakouts. There are several triangles and wedges inside this generic wedge that most of us have tried to draw. Within this, we have had a spring and price has started to rise with volume again (demand greater than supply) instead of volume rising with price falling (supply greater than demand)

We could go into actual crazy detail as to what the market is doing and extrapolate this chart. I could post something serious; but there is no saving the Elliot bears, and I am not wasting my early retirement on explaining things to people plagued with cognitive bias, and get a greater kick out of trolling people that ignore Wyckoff and what a market is trying to do.
Sep 30
Comment: 2014 vs 2018 for Jokes because we know that everyone is saying "it's not the same" You are right, it isn't the same. The makeup of the market shift is completely different given the fundamental differences, but the same processes of distribution and accumulation are being exhibited. If all bear and bull markets followed the same patterns of time... I don't really need to go into this. They don't. You know that, I know that. Go and look at the a world index or an equities chart....

Good idea. Equities.

This is the US Equities market.
Notice the rising wedge
Notice volume declining with price
Notice OBV flattening
Notice its about to crash
When the equities market falls, money flows into Govt debts(bonds) Gold, and funnily enough; Crypto. When the equity market falls, we should see a huge influx of money flowing into crypto. Funny how the end of that rising wedge lines up so well with our falling wedge on BTC.

We could do this all day, but the fact is, if you think shorting BTC right now is a good idea because of Elliot, Telegram, or someone on here, then you need to get your head checked as your risk management and knowledge of markets isn't good enough for you to be putting the money on the table. No one here is your friend, and if you want to play your money wildly, people with experience and bigger wallets out there will take your money.

DYOR
Sep 30
Comment: Sorry I missed the 2014 vs 2018 chart
Oct 01
Comment: Here is another way of looking at it.
Oct 01
Comment: I know I don't like long-term oscillators but
Oct 01
Comment: THIS CAN STILL GO DOWN.
RISK MANAGEMENT
DYOR
Oct 01
Comment: We have entered the void.
We have support on the middle band of BB
BB contracting
Tested and broken downtrend resistance
Tested and staying above downtrend support.
Seriously close!!!
Big up or down, or down. Up then down is very unlikely.
Oct 02
Comment:
Oct 02
Comment:
Oct 02
Comment: Possible next move. Green triange 2 isnt really a triangle. I expect it to fall from here. Not saying it has to.
Oct 02
Comment: Found support on downtrend line "in the void"
Oct 02
Comment: "The Void"
Oct 02
Comment: 1D looks good. On middle BB, and forming an upward channel.
Dark part of my mind is expecting some kind of V drop bounce - Low volume + MEX Cant translate Mex support levels off Tensor charts as they are changing a lot, but STRONG support around 6K. Also potential short squeeze in the mix. Usual kind of stuff. Its going to be big.

ALTS are moving up. Particularly VET, THETA, QASH, ICX, ZIL, DGB... Positive signs.
Oct 02
Comment: This candle! Watch it!! 1 hour left on the 4hr close. If it closes above 6565 then we have a phenomenal bullish hammer.
Oct 02
Comment:
Oct 03
Comment: "Tedious" : adjective
too long, slow, or dull; tiresome or monotonous.

synonyms: boring, monotonous, dull, deadly dull, uninteresting, unexciting, unvaried, unvarying, lacking variety, mind-numbing, mindless, soul-destroying, soulless, humdrum, dreary, ho-hum, mundane, wearisome, wearying, tiresome, soporific,
Looking more like a shape on the 4HR now it has dropped (as expected) The shape in question is everybody's favourite reversal pattern from the last 8 months - The Falling Wedge
Oct 03
Comment: This is what I want to mention. These are our basic signals telling us what is going on.
Price is declining with volume (losing selling interest) and volume is increasing when the price goes up
All this time OBV is going up (these are your big dawgs buying) Bullish div
These are bullish signals. In a bear market all these signals are in reverse.

Oct 03
Comment:
Oct 04
Comment: What a surprise!
Oct 04
Comment: Come down to the 5min to have a look. Not really sure what BTC is trying to form here. Volume is so low that the flag/pennant/channel could become anything here.


But the 1hr view shows that we could have extended the size of our falling wedge pattern, and that BTC has broken long-term downtrend resistance yet again.
If we see a move up to 6800 here, then I expect there will be more stopped buy orders than there will be supply, and there will be fireworks.

However, it is also worth remembering that Finex will be going into "Maintainance" for 2hrs today. The last time that happened there was a very synthetic market crash - followed by a BIG short squeeze, forcing price upwards.
Oct 04
Comment: Upside Target
Oct 04
Comment: Lets do that again
"Tedious" : adjective
too long, slow, or dull; tiresome or monotonous.

synonyms: boring, monotonous, dull, deadly dull, uninteresting, unexciting, unvaried, unvarying, lacking variety, mind-numbing, mindless, soul-destroying, soulless, humdrum, dreary, ho-hum, mundane, wearisome, wearying, tiresome, soporific,


Looking more like a shape on the 4HR now it has dropped (as expected) The shape in question is everybody's favourite reversal pattern from the last 8 months - The Falling Wedge
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gainsbeast gainsbeast
@gainsbeast, argh I am so tired and bored I am even replying to myself....
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Short term perspective:

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Love your work!

I discuss the bullish scenario of BTC over the next quarter | Short-term targets | Monthly closing

Bitcoin analysis October 1st, 2018:
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I'm skeptical of this wyckoff accumulation you are drawing. Your so called spring has already had 4 tests of support lines and we do not see the classic increase in volume that comes with it. I think you are just looking at a descending triangle. It could break up or down but statistically more likely to break down. 82% to apex now and volume declining, both signs that break out will not fail.
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gainsbeast autemox
@autemox, Its actually a falling wedge, and its made from several falling wedges. The black shape you are referring to as a triangle is a reference to the Wyckoffian setup, even if it was a triangle it has still had its resistances broken twice on the upside. It is pretty invalid, but it is what every person and their dog is drawing, so I am drawing that big basic shape to frame the distribution and accumulation. But the spring (which I initially disputed) is followed by a series of higher lows and increased volume. However, volume isn't explosive as we are still constrained by that diagonal downtrend line. If you watch price action and volume you will see that we are in a stage of accumulation. If this does break down and we turn into re-distribution I will be shocked to say the least.

In reference to the trendlines that it has tested. It's not that simple.
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gainsbeast autemox
@autemox, Also, you have to remember that this chart is 50% troll.
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5300, then 32k?
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I skip through so many charts each day everytime I read the sentence "Bitcoin MUST do this" or "WILL do that" because of x-y-z. I trade the trend and the current market at hand. Too many people are coming with precise targets and levels that cause their cognitive bias as you said, because they are already imagining taking their profits at their targets. I rather try to imagine that every trade I take is a losing trade, and what should I do to mitigate the loss. I like your simple approach, very refreshing amongst a sea of ignorance ;)
+1 Reply
gainsbeast Gouws199
@Gouws199, The chart is about 50% farce 50% exasperation - 50% designed to annoy 50% designed to laugh away the BS
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