Here's another look at BTC's current situation, I alluded to bear traps in my last double bottom update. Here, I zoom in on the 30min chart to show exactly what I'm referring to.
This short uptrend bounce has been very hard fought. It's almost been painful to watch. The last two bull flags didn't break out until about 79% of their own retracement. Now, I think the market can go any direction at any time, but given the slow progress of this rally, it seems odd that in the moment of most despair, a moment in which it appeared these bull flags were failing to form and breaking out back down. It seems odd it was in those moments both times that everyone chose to rally and buy when most indicators would tell you it was dropping and you had the opportunity to buy lower very soon.
I'm not much for conspiracy theories. But I'm not blind to the possibility of market manipulation either. Here we are again, we have the chance to observe and see what happens. It would be one hell of a bear trap to bounce off the 79% retracement again. In this case it also happens to fall on a potential physiological support zone being at an even 8k. Everyone is now calling for a double bottom, and I agree it could shake down like that. But, There's also the chance it bounces here and has the momentum to make it through the combined resistance of the 79% retrace and mid-line of the downward trend.
Either way, it's going to be a fun ride!
Thanks for reading, let me know what you think!
Also, not that anyone was thinking about it; but I don't recommend using any of this advise for trading... All of my analyses are formed using my own set of highly technical and complex algorithms that I like to refer to as.. pure speculative imagination! They've done some studies, and 60% of the time.. I'm wrong every time...
Sly2.0
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We had a possible fake breakout that makes this look almost identical to our second bull flag. It sets up for the actual test at the 79% retrace. It's do or die!! Will we bounce for real?! Or fall to our doom!
At the 30 min view we have the 200 day MA and a few people trying to rally.
Don't think its happening. Been like that all day trying to bust through the 9k mark. Its Saturday and
People cashed out waiting to buy back on Monday if there are any swing trade opps.
That's my opinion.
sly2
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@cryptobiting, I don't disagree, but I'd be cautious..
We were in a similar position yesterday. Fell under the 200MA, and with about the same volume and RSI. Arguably, at a worse time of day too.
Don't think its happening. Been like that all day trying to bust through the 9k mark. Its Saturday and
People cashed out waiting to buy back on Monday if there are any swing trade opps.
That's my opinion.