COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We have reached the target 3200 as expected. I think the time to retest 4000, 4150 W1 EMA200 and 4400 prev high in an upwards correction will come soon as more buyers step in.
SEC ETF deadline is postponed once again to Feb 27 as expected - no surprise runs any time soon.
- oversold on W1 again
- almost touched W1 SMA200 support
- divergence forming on H1, H4, D1 RSI and H4, D1 EWO
- EMA 12x26 cross on H1 and on H4 soon
- seems like wave 5 of C/Y is in (could go lower though)

- sell volume is rising but it is also falling compared to the first leg of the drop , so it could mean absorption before reversal
- DJI/ SPY can still go lower to complete an ABC correction. If SPY closes below 253 we may have a deeper correction towards W1 EMA200 (240) while going below that could mean a recession.
And recession will be catastrophic for all things crypto because people will have other things to think of: mortgages and forclosures, losing their jobs, defaulting on loans, bankruptcies etc causing a domino effect.

Good news: As RSI Bands show, divergence on D1 can't be invalidated - requires a drop to prev D1 RSI low 10, which translates to zero Bitcoin price - not possible.
This means that we're near this year's bottom. Even if there's one more leg down, no matter how deep it is, we will definitely go up after that.
Bad news: technically we could drop to 2750 first.

red and green arrows represent the 2 scenarios that I see.

Good Luck!

Please don't trade based only on my analysis. This is not a financial advice. Do you own research to confirm.
Comment: Elliott Wave Counts that I'm using. Basically it's an unwrapping of several nested 1-2-3-4-5 in progress. It can't be WXY/ABC because the parent structure is either 1-2-3-4-5 or a large ABC zigzag (with A comparable in height to future C). So, we're likely in wave 5 and must exclude all possible WXY/ABC alt counts inside it.
We have reached the -23.6 and -1 algo targets (3260) and can still go further to -0.618 (2900) and ultimately to a larger -23.6 (2750).

The highest we can go right now is EMA100/blue pitchfork band (~3500), but so far, it doesn't look good for wave iv, we have:
- a rejection from EMA50
- a rejection from EMA12,26
- closed below middle BB
- sell volume starts to rise again


What are you expect from btc now?

Hey, I don't have time to look at BTC in depth. Here's what I think after a quick glance.
We have a divergence on H4. The volume's dropping. We can move a bit higher, touch 4400 (D1 prev high, EMA50, W1 EMA200), then reverse.
The idea is to create a fake inverted H&S, pullback, go back up to retest the neck later, but break down.
Also check out my thoughts on LTCUSD - you can extrapolate the move for BTC from there.

We may also have H4 SMA50x200 golden cross soon.
If we manage to close a weekly candle above W1 EMA200 and also open/close the next weekly candle above it that's definitely a good for the bulls.
If the upcoming D1 EMA 12x26 cross and H4 SMA50x200 golden crosse are not invalidated next week, we may retrace 50-61.8% and then have another leg up, possibly break 4400 (bulls need to break it to show strength).
So the 2nd green arrow on my chart may not go down that deep. It could reverse at 3000-3100 and go up again. Can we reach 5000? Lets break 4400 first.
Use LTC and CME:BTC1! futures as leading indicators.

There are 4 major signs of a bullish trend change:
- D1 EMA 12x26 cross - we may get it soon
- D1 5 waves up, break and close above the prev high 4400
- W1 close, open/close on the next bar above EMA200
- break the last breaking point level = first major resistance on the way up = 6000

Anything in between is just a bounce that may ultimately lead to a capitulation.


we need to go to at least H4 RSI 78 to invalidate the divergence, which translates to 4600

general idea of the capitulation move that may follow:
(it may not play out exactly the same way, we may have some ranging with consolidating volume at 3K similar to the later stages of bouncing above 6K)
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