BTC Bounce Becoming Likely

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin moves fast and I am now seeing evidence it reached a near-term bottom and is becoming likely to bounce. The 34 Day EMA on the 1 Day chart has served as a reliable indicator of a bottom. Since the bull market returned, $BTC barley crosses the 34 Day EMA and never for very long before a bounce.

In addition, a long held belief in Bitcoin is an RSI at or below 50 on the 1 Day chart is a good buy signal. $BTC rarely comes near 50 RSI and when it does, it bounces. Bitcoin is sitting at 50.06 RSI as I am writing this.

This morning Bitcoin looked likely to fall and it fell. It now looks likely to bounce.


Accordingly rsi bottomed but not in pattern I think more correction wants market
+1 Reply
BitcoinCensus Make_Money_Guru_Bitcoin
@Make_Money_Guru_Bitcoin, I agree, the trend shifted bearish not bullish. Assuming the chart I posted is correct, I don't think price can last long below the current levels. Bitcoin is a fast mover. But then again, the longer we stay below 10,600 the more likely it becomes that we go below $10K.

It is also possible the move to near $14K distorted the RSI and EMAs just enough to create a false bounce flag. That's the impact of an outlier on data analysis like RSI and EMAs.

I've wondered about the impact on outliers in cryptocurrency prediction for a while now. RSI and EMAs are not meant to work under these types of 10% swings in a few hours. Theoretically the swings would create lag in an EMA meaning the "true 34 day EMA" was lower yesterday than what we saw on the charts. I wish I knew how to suppress data in TradingView.
RSI on hourly looks about bottomed out too
+1 Reply
Good analysis!
+1 Reply
BitcoinCensus Adam_Polinak
@Adam_Polinak, thanks. To be honest this discovery was emotion driven. I was trying to trade the swings and the closer I looked after we hit $10.8K the more I thought...'it's not going lower, or much lower, so buy now.'
scottyk BitcoinCensus
@BitcoinCensus, Looks promising mate
+1 Reply
is the 34 day ema a reliable indicator anywhere else, or just in the last 90 days?? I hope youre right, but it sounds like maybe youre "trying to make the shoe fit"? Id be interested to know if this type of analysis is trustworthy. If Im looking at the fibonacci it could move up to 11,500 and then move down. Is your analysis for a quick in and out day trade, or the overall movement of the market?
BitcoinCensus Signingintothissiteisawful
@Signingintothissiteisawful, I don't know what you are asking. Overall I was trying to predict the near term trend. Trying to figure out when a sizable bounce or dip is likely.

The fibonacci trendlines on my charts are all EMAs. Most of them are using Fibonacci's relevant /numbers/fibonacci-sequence.html#

Specifically the ones I am displaying are here in my code which I adapted from someone else:

study("Fibonacci Trendlines", overlay=true)
plot(ema(close, 8), color=#20C2C5, linewidth=3, title='8 Day EMA')
plot(ema(close, 13), color=#c154de, linewidth=3, title='13 Day EMA')
plot(ema(close, 21), color=orange, linewidth=3, title="21 Day EMA")
plot(ema(close, 34), color=gray, linewidth=3, title="34 Day EMA")
plot(ema(close, 55), color=silver, linewidth=3, title="55 Day EMA")
plot(ema(close, 200), color=black,linewidth=4, title="200 Day EMA")
plot(ema(close, 255), color=blue, linewidth=5, title="255 Day EMA")

You can copy and past this code into your trading view Pine Editor and save it and have it forever on your charts.
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