BTC Printed A Massive Hold on My Channel! Here's What it Means!
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's jump right in! looking at the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin has printed a powerful hold on the top of the downtrend channel (in blue) that I posted about on May 20th. When you zoom in, and look closely at how the recent low held the top of that channel, it's really a thing of beauty. Not a single candle closed below it, despite several tests. That caused me to buy back into a healthy long position in BTC. Essentially, BTC has now printed an upside breakout from the downtrend channel, and a confirmed the breakout by holding it as support. Unfortunately, the hold wasn't printed on high volume, but it is a hold nonetheless. So, from my perspective, I saw the hold as a perfect opportunity to get long. I originally had my stop just below the top of the channel, but I have now raised it to a higher level.
So, if Bitcoin is going to push higher again, I think we could see a massive rally to the 13,500 level. The reason is simple. If you want to find a price target from a channel breakout, you typically take a measurement of the width of the channel, and add it to a bullish breakout or subtract it from a bearish one. In this case, adding the width of the channel to the breakout point puts the target up around 13,800. However, I think the real target could be just below that, around 13,500, which is the 61.8% retrace for the entire bear market. It's interesting how the channel target lines up almost perfectly with the 618.
With that said, the pattern that BTC is forming looks somewhat like a head and shoulders in development. So, we have to keep an eye on that. If BTC rolls over here, and falls back inside of the downtrend channel, then the outlook would be very negative. However, that is not currently the case. BTC remains in a strong uptrend. We can see that it is consistently making higher highs and higher lows, it has held the top of the downtrend channel, it's holding above the EMA ribbon, and the indicators are beginning to look increasingly bullish. For instance, we can see that the MACD is about to print a bullish crossover here on the daily chart. Also, the ADX and DI (shout out to Crypto Crew University) has crossed over bullish, but we need to see the signal line turn higher to indicate an increase in momentum.
Don't get too drunk on euphoria though. Things aren't all unicorns and rainbows in Bitcoin land. The NVT (ooooooh that gloriously devilish NVT) has been building, and building, and building the largest sell signal known to crypto. Actually, on the 8th, the NVT briefly flashed the sell signal, by falling out of the red zone, but then retreated from it the very next day. You can see that in the small black dip that the NVT had below the red shaded region. That price action is similar to what we saw in the NVT during the buildup to the fall from 6,000. So, for now, BTC is keeping the NVT on ice.
Currently price is beginning to test the recent highs around 8700-9100. So, if we can breakout above 9100 I think will see a massive explosion, potentially up toward 13,500. I know there are several resistance levels on the way up, but that's the target for a confirmed downtrend channel breakout, and it lines up almost perfectly wit the 618. So, for me, the line in the sand is the top of the downtrend channel. Above it, I am bullish. Below it, I'm bearish. It's as simple as that.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
So, if Bitcoin is going to push higher again, I think we could see a massive rally to the 13,500 level. The reason is simple. If you want to find a price target from a channel breakout, you typically take a measurement of the width of the channel, and add it to a bullish breakout or subtract it from a bearish one. In this case, adding the width of the channel to the breakout point puts the target up around 13,800. However, I think the real target could be just below that, around 13,500, which is the 61.8% retrace for the entire bear market. It's interesting how the channel target lines up almost perfectly with the 618.
With that said, the pattern that BTC is forming looks somewhat like a head and shoulders in development. So, we have to keep an eye on that. If BTC rolls over here, and falls back inside of the downtrend channel, then the outlook would be very negative. However, that is not currently the case. BTC remains in a strong uptrend. We can see that it is consistently making higher highs and higher lows, it has held the top of the downtrend channel, it's holding above the EMA ribbon, and the indicators are beginning to look increasingly bullish. For instance, we can see that the MACD is about to print a bullish crossover here on the daily chart. Also, the ADX and DI (shout out to Crypto Crew University) has crossed over bullish, but we need to see the signal line turn higher to indicate an increase in momentum.
Don't get too drunk on euphoria though. Things aren't all unicorns and rainbows in Bitcoin land. The NVT (ooooooh that gloriously devilish NVT) has been building, and building, and building the largest sell signal known to crypto. Actually, on the 8th, the NVT briefly flashed the sell signal, by falling out of the red zone, but then retreated from it the very next day. You can see that in the small black dip that the NVT had below the red shaded region. That price action is similar to what we saw in the NVT during the buildup to the fall from 6,000. So, for now, BTC is keeping the NVT on ice.
Currently price is beginning to test the recent highs around 8700-9100. So, if we can breakout above 9100 I think will see a massive explosion, potentially up toward 13,500. I know there are several resistance levels on the way up, but that's the target for a confirmed downtrend channel breakout, and it lines up almost perfectly wit the 618. So, for me, the line in the sand is the top of the downtrend channel. Above it, I am bullish. Below it, I'm bearish. It's as simple as that.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-