Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since the very start of this Channel Down in October. Right now it appears to be within the consolidation phase that is about to start the 3rd Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The Channel Down is not an uncommon pattern during Bear Cycles as the very same structure dominated the 2022 Bear Cycle entirely. Based on that we may not see the formation break up until the very end of the Cycle and its bottom.
More specifically, it was when the 2022 Channel Down bottomed in November 2022 on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and the subsequent rebound broke above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that we had confirmation of starting the new Bull Cycle. Note here that the 1D MA100 has been the Bear Cycle's Resistance since October 13 2025 (2nd week of the bear market) and priced the last Lower High rejection (January 12 2026), just like it was the absolute Resistance for the 2022 Channel Down (with the exception of 3 weeks).
Right now the price is consolidating just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the 2nd Bearish Leg in February 02 and the next one should technically break it and test the 1W MA350 where it should technically start the bottoming process, potentially towards the 1W MA450 (grey trend-line) even within $45000 - 40000.
So do you think this 2026 Channel Down will hold up until almost the very bottom? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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The Channel Down is not an uncommon pattern during Bear Cycles as the very same structure dominated the 2022 Bear Cycle entirely. Based on that we may not see the formation break up until the very end of the Cycle and its bottom.
More specifically, it was when the 2022 Channel Down bottomed in November 2022 on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and the subsequent rebound broke above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that we had confirmation of starting the new Bull Cycle. Note here that the 1D MA100 has been the Bear Cycle's Resistance since October 13 2025 (2nd week of the bear market) and priced the last Lower High rejection (January 12 2026), just like it was the absolute Resistance for the 2022 Channel Down (with the exception of 3 weeks).
Right now the price is consolidating just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the 2nd Bearish Leg in February 02 and the next one should technically break it and test the 1W MA350 where it should technically start the bottoming process, potentially towards the 1W MA450 (grey trend-line) even within $45000 - 40000.
So do you think this 2026 Channel Down will hold up until almost the very bottom? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.