Bitcoin has pumped a lot in the last few weeks. We can surely predict a correction soon as the matter of fact I think that it just started. RSI index is at the all time highs and there is a doji star forming currently on the daily timeframe. I predict that we will retrace to the 20 week MA as we did in previous cycles, and in this chart I show the probable scenario of retracing to 0.618 fibonnaci retracement level. We could be expecting around 50% to 60% correction, which is completely normal in the bitcoin bullruns. That would put a price per one Bitcoin to around 18000$ at the bottom of the dip.
@TheSignalyst, that would be nice but pullbacks have averaged 10% since the March crash. i would love to know what the 21W EMA will be when the retest happens but I suspect that is multiple weeks away.
RejaA
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@Zmaniac, Yes, but from the march crash we weren't in a bullrun yet. It's better to compare the corrections from previous two cycles :)
nzahir
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By the time we get to the 20 week MA, it will be higher than 18k
60% drops aren't normal during bull market corrections, 25-35% is normal, sometimes you may see a 40-50%, but 60%-85% is saved for the final crashes
Show me data if I am wrong from 2017 cycle
I would love another chance to get cheaper btc, eth, and some more smaller alts
I feel like 20-25k (probably somewhere in between) is where we should go to, would shake out many people coming in right now and do some some of retest (yes it is above the 20k high of 2017)
RejaA
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@nzahir, You are not wrong, surely we could meet the MA higher. BUT this cycle looks a lot more similar to 2013 than 2017 to me. And in 2013 we saw huge pumps and drops. We never moved so far away from the MA last cycle, except for the final peak.
It is very hard to say for sure how low we will drop, but we are all on the same page that a big correction is coming right? :)
nzahir
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@RejaA, Hard to compare this to 2013, market cap and numbers were so so much smaller and gains were much much bigger
Got to be realistic there
I have been thinking there would be a correction since 30k, so what do I know..
I know this will eventually end up being at least a 70% drop from the peak, up to an 80-85% drop (less likely b/c of institutional money and larger market cap though)
RejaA
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@nzahir, Yes I know there were smaller numbers in 2013, but there are a lot bigger investments now. Pumping billions of dollars into it, last cycle we saw bigger numbers and smaller investments. Just a thought.
And yes, you may be right about the size of the drop. It will probably move to 0.5 fibonacci level instead of 0.618.
That would put a bottom of the dip at twenty and something thousand. Maybe even higher. Institutions keep buying these dips so we will just have to wait and see.