I'm taking you back to last summer and breaking down the trend on a weekly basis to see how it formed and how that trend expired in the recent weeks with the end of three separate 10-week setups. The declines ALL REACHED their downside projections and they all reached new lows within half of the time of the time of the mode. We can use that benchmark on the current advance.
The current 7 week (light yellow box) has generated a buy signal as of last week's close, but notice that technically a downtrend is still in place from the high at 309.90 on the week of January 25th. There are 5-weeks at the same level around 240 in the downtrend, but then it failed to make an entire range below 240 to trigger the entry short. The downtrend is still in place until we cross above 309.90.
So, as much as I like the fact that the downtrend from the 10-week distributions are over and that means we can go back to those 10-week modes at 360-370-380 for upside potential, the current uptrend needs to get moving here soon.
If you are long, stop is under the 7-week mode (light yellow box) - targeting 309.90 initially, then 360-370-380 within 5 more weeks.
Tim
12:00PM EST 3/13/15 290.50 last
Comments
Zoltan
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nice! Thank you very much!
N.Bayrak
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an other great work of you,Thanks.
timwest
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Thanks @MyLeftBrain - very nice of you
blackswan
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weren't you saying a month ago that USD124 was the target after several bounces? are you confirming we're in uptrend now or is that going to end in 10 weeks?
tradingview.com/v/s4rYefwq/
Zoltan
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This is trading, things change quickly
timwest
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I'm outlining here a methodology for following the market quantitatively and objectively. So when the market didn't make a new low in 5 weeks, it suggested that an uptrend had started and if the market is above the "mode" since the lowest lows, then the market was in the "mark-up phase" which follows the "accumulation phase". The downside targets are still there based on longer term monthly charts and we should look to those targets when this current "weekly time frame, weak uptrend" ends.
timwest
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After reviewing that chart, my point there was that $124 was the biggest key support level, so the fact that the market didn't get down to that level implied that accumulation was stronger than usual. I used a log-chart in that chart and I see that there really is 11-weeks at one price (instead of 10), but it still showed the same point that "time expired" for the decline around the same time, which is the same analysis. Until I get "TIME AT MODE" programmed to calculated AUTOMATICALLY here at Tradingview, there is always a little chance to miss the count at the mode. I'm looking forward to that analytical tool so we can all see and understand what stage each market is in. Thanks for your question @blackswan.