Pantera's Rampage on Bitcoin

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So, according to WSJ, on April 13th Pantera Capital Management, a hedge fund with a focus on cryptocurrencies, called $6500 a bottom and promised $20000 for BTC by the end of year.
Also, there are rumors that some Wall Street players, Soros Management Fund, Rockefeller’s venture capital firm will all suddenly start buying into Bitcoin . Soon.
Whether true or not, all this caused a sudden $1200 spike in Bitcoin's price on double the usual daily volume . Many bears were rekt as result. But was it a trap just for the bears or for both bears and bulls? Lets see.

Multiple wave counts are possible:

1) Bearish scenario:
We are in (WXYXZ), in (Z) on the way down to 6000, (X) = ABC
both blue ABC and red ABC converge at the same level around 8460:
blue ABC: C = 2.618 of A
red ABC: C = 1.618 of A

red ABC is possible if (Y) is the 6400 bottom, wave A is the first wave up of an upwards correction, wave B is a triangle abcde, where leg e is the end of wave B.
blue ABC is possible if (C) is the 6500 bottom, in this scenario:
(Y) moves to => (C),
wave (circle) => (Y),
wave (circle) moves to => (C) and becomes a truncated wave (6500 is higher than 6400).

2) Bullish scenario:
(C) is the 6500 bottom, in this scenario:
(Y) moves to => (C),
wave (circle) => (Y),
wave (circle) moves to => (C) and becomes a truncated wave (6500 is higher than 6400).

And we have an up trend (i,ii, iii ,iv,v) instead of an ABC and (X).
In this case expect wave (iv) correction to 38.2% 7800 (max 7600), bounce up, retest and break above the blue down channel of the down-facing pitchfork .
If we fail to breach it the blue channel will become the new down channel . The correction is long due because of RSI divergence.
Correction below 50% level 7600 (Y > 1.618 of W) invalidates the up trend and confirms the continuation of a down trend for the near future. This level must hold for the up trend to succeed.
After up trend is confirmed the price should move along the lines of the upside-facing smaller pitchfork . We can go as high as 8950 (161.8%).

Please, don't trade based on my analysis only. Do your own research. This is not a financial advice, I'm not responsible for possible losses.

Good Luck!

Where is the price on the chart ? LOL
I have a similar count and then people call me weird and complex, hah!

in elliott waves there's no single perfect count, all counts are subjective and open for interpretations. Several bearish/bullish counts exist at the same time. For instance:

- you can almost always count 5 waves as 3 waves and vice versa (if corrections are of similar size).
- you can count ABC vs WXY vs 123 etc. You can use normal vs log scale to mess with fibos and channels.
- you can assume a truncated 5 or C in the end of a trend and break the 5 wave trend rule when you need it.

Certain moves/counts are confirmed/invalidated when certain levels are breached. You watch those levels while they hold and after they break you produce a new count using the same set of rules to your best knowledge to try to adapt to the market change. This particular triangle at the end of a down trend is difficult to explain, some traders don't see it as triangle at all.

You always assume that there are certain rules and the market will do its best to obey those rules simply because there are other traders who follow the same/similar rules trying to outsmart you and win. They are playing the same subset of a trading game on the market board - Elliott subset. And this makes the markets "predictable" with a certain avg probability 55-60%. Sometimes markets fail and break the rules because they mostly are unsupervised and subject to heavy manipulation, but you always assume that the rules will be respected again. This should hold true while other traders exist and play the game using the same strategy.
+1 Reply
Acel RagingRocketBull
@RagingRocketBull, Heh, i know. You didnt have to type all this wall of text. Here is mine.
@Acel, I've read your post and comments, I will reply here.

Couple notes on the chart:

- your count is valid and I totally see it working, you have experience
- seems that you like the idea of overshooting wave B (I usually try to avoid it and call it the end of wave 5 or wave a because you can literally see every wave B as overshooting and break the count easily)
- I explore the idea of WXY as a large generic container of complex corrections vs chained sequential connections between groups of waves ABCxWXYxABC that you use. I see everything as a container. This makes a lot easier to cross check multiple counts. These approaches are not necessarily contradicting each other.
- you labeled the wave to 11600 as B. The whole wave was an ending wedge, and B can't contain wedges. But of course you can argue that a) X should not contain wedges either and b) it was not a wedge because wave d did not overlap the end of wave a. That's totally accepted. You can call it a B.
- I don't like the idea of a triangle at the bottom (end of down trend) because it is not proportional to the subsequent wave, so I'm leaning toward truncated wave v count for the bullish count.
But of course a fakeout (which it probably is) and a down trend would totally confirm the triangle for me.

A side note regarding your rants with copying ideas with not credit: don't share if you don't want people to copy. Create a private membership group, leak only irrelevant info.
Personally, I don't follow other traders/read their ideas because I can perfectly do analysis myself and I'm happy to share my thoughts for free on a free* platform.
Yes, I can sometimes watch a few videos and glance at some charts when I'm in doubt, but that's a rare case.
+1 Reply
Acel RagingRocketBull
@RagingRocketBull, ok those are great points and i will try to reply on all of them!

- Overshoot on B you probably mean the irregular to 20k. I didnt have it like that in the begining because i havent bother a lot tbh. I starting counting since the whole bull run just after the long term bear market a few days ago. I have 2 more alts for this whole run. On the way up, i noticed that is very likely for this being an expanded flat ( structure and fib wise) also @JoshThomas04 have noticed this earlier and made perfect sense to me.

- About the wave B on 11.6k. Yes the whole structure looks like a wedge, but the c of that B is an ending diagonal itself, while the a of B is clearly impulsive. Triangle on b of B which leads to an impulsive 1 of c.

- About the bottom triangle. I have noticed a few possibilities but i went with this one for now mainly because we have a big impulse after the exit of the triangle. It can also be a truncated 5th for the bottom, an extended 5th to 6.4 ( with 3/4 on the triangle above ), an irregular ABC for that green ((A)). This whole structure can even be some kind of expanded triangle like the previously labeled (x). Really, there are many alts here, its a matter of preference. :)

- About the rant.
1) If the mods or the admin dont put an end on this i can guarantee that it will get a lot worst. Many "top" authors got there by posting their ideas under viral ideas for dragging attention and likes/ clicks / followers. Personally i have no interest on those at all. Recently they started copying just cause they feel like it. I dont have much experience on trading and TA, but i have noticed that there is a lot, like a LOT of EGO around the analists. They care more about being right than checking something alternative or providing something useful.
2) There are many guys that do fractal analysis like @BarclayJames , just to see some more "popular" people taking away the ideas without giving credit. Copying seems to be fine on the Asian cultures for some reason ( no, this is not racist ) but its a BIG disrespect (and not a flatter) in Europe and you can get in serious trouble for "copyrights". Im fine with taking my idea, but there is an option to add "related" ideas when you post. Its there for a reason, its NOT random.

Every count is checked by fib extentions/retracements and correlations for maximum efficiency, just like you do. About the current Bitcoin state, I think its already on a downtrend but will give it 50% for a double top or truncated 5th. I dont see it making a HH, about 15% for that happening.

When i see an idea from a serious Elliotician that i follow, i first go do a quick count myself and then check his chart/video. You do the work yourself, and then check what the other guy thinks, its not vice versa.

Let me know if i forgot to reply on something, we both have a wall of text so i probably did skip on something.
+1 Reply
@Acel, Thanks for the shout out Acel, but now I must definitely give @elshanti a mention! XD
+1 Reply
Acel BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, f**k @elshanti he unfollowed! Heh, im joking.

He is good with a lot of potential for further improvement, once he stops comparing 1:1 he will be a lot better.
@Acel, wtf man, he's a total bull now don't you know ;)
Acel BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, oh really? When i was telling him about a bull trap and then followed by a bear trap he was more like "meeeh" . Now he is full bull? Meeeeh.

Use "this time is different" , its his triggered phrase. Proof for the statement above. It should be on one of his earlier posts but was too bored to find it.
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