Around late March....
I was reviewing my 'satellite view' charts
These were started over 4 years ago
They are what I used to cut my following before I went quiet
The value of Satellite views...
When you zoom out to one day charts...
You see patterns that cannot be imagined in 1- 4 hour charts
So.. I saw this pattern in my mind, late March...
Then weeks later, others started publishing similar ideas
Those authors used EW and Wyckoff (which I do not)
But when opposing methods all end up with similar outcomes
ONE MUST BE ON THE ALERT
Why I did not publish all these years..
I just came back to authoring HERE a week ago.
And before posting this new chart...
I wanted to be more confident in my thinking
and more important, I was finding NEW factors now influencing price
and these factors were not relevant over the last four years
THE STOCK MARKET
I will add comments soon that:
- DETAIL and EXPLAIN my thinking
- forecast update /share my indicators
- mention other TA pros who share similar ideas
I was reviewing my 'satellite view' charts
These were started over 4 years ago
They are what I used to cut my following before I went quiet
The value of Satellite views...
When you zoom out to one day charts...
You see patterns that cannot be imagined in 1- 4 hour charts
So.. I saw this pattern in my mind, late March...
Then weeks later, others started publishing similar ideas
Those authors used EW and Wyckoff (which I do not)
But when opposing methods all end up with similar outcomes
ONE MUST BE ON THE ALERT
Why I did not publish all these years..
I just came back to authoring HERE a week ago.
And before posting this new chart...
I wanted to be more confident in my thinking
and more important, I was finding NEW factors now influencing price
and these factors were not relevant over the last four years
THE STOCK MARKET
I will add comments soon that:
- DETAIL and EXPLAIN my thinking
- forecast update /share my indicators
- mention other TA pros who share similar ideas
Comment:
I have not drawn anything on this graph, but instead, decided to describe what may happen in the coming hours... because in the scheme of the larger chart, this is just a minor event.
BTC is riding just under a descending dynamic trend line. I drew it weeks ago and knew it would come in handy to define a stopping price. Such behavior seems almost magical, yet there it is. And for hours, this trend line is holding price back, in spite of the bullish sentiment.
This means buyers and sellers are balanced at the moment.
For BTC to reach the target of 48k, which everyone and their grandma is screaming about in their forecasts... It is critical that BTC price breaks past the trend line to keep the momentum from the bounce at 38.8k
If this does not happen during the Asian market at 4 am (Wed) then it could happen at 6 am. If not, the next wave could be kickstarted if the stock markets open positive (Wed 9 am EST) and stay that way for the first hour. Then I am expecting BTC to reach 42500... and take a breather.
Ukraine news is part of the impulse for wild stock market fluctuations, namely because of food shortage, fuel crisis, recession fears and yadda yadda yadda. Not sure what tomorrow will bring, except a lot of the financial reports from big corporations have been positive since Monday and today. Will this continue?
Should the NASDAQ and SP500 stay in the green, the overall market fear will ease and greed will kick in. I believe optimistic buyers who were holding out, will start entering the market.
BTC is riding just under a descending dynamic trend line. I drew it weeks ago and knew it would come in handy to define a stopping price. Such behavior seems almost magical, yet there it is. And for hours, this trend line is holding price back, in spite of the bullish sentiment.
This means buyers and sellers are balanced at the moment.
For BTC to reach the target of 48k, which everyone and their grandma is screaming about in their forecasts... It is critical that BTC price breaks past the trend line to keep the momentum from the bounce at 38.8k
If this does not happen during the Asian market at 4 am (Wed) then it could happen at 6 am. If not, the next wave could be kickstarted if the stock markets open positive (Wed 9 am EST) and stay that way for the first hour. Then I am expecting BTC to reach 42500... and take a breather.
Ukraine news is part of the impulse for wild stock market fluctuations, namely because of food shortage, fuel crisis, recession fears and yadda yadda yadda. Not sure what tomorrow will bring, except a lot of the financial reports from big corporations have been positive since Monday and today. Will this continue?
Should the NASDAQ and SP500 stay in the green, the overall market fear will ease and greed will kick in. I believe optimistic buyers who were holding out, will start entering the market.
Comment:
My previous forecast hit its target... until it didn't
Recap..
Before midnight, I stated three EST time areas for BTC's likely run upward
5:30 am fit the middle prediction
until 9:45 am: BTC rose to 42250, more or less, near my 42500 forecast
10:00 am: NASQAQ fell into the negative
and weak hands in Bitcoin, then panic sold to take profits
ALT coins took a beating, losing more than BTC
My other recently published ideas WARNED about weak hands in the stock market who treat Bitcoin like a stock. This continues to be a problem in the crypto market.
Recap..
Before midnight, I stated three EST time areas for BTC's likely run upward
5:30 am fit the middle prediction
until 9:45 am: BTC rose to 42250, more or less, near my 42500 forecast
10:00 am: NASQAQ fell into the negative
and weak hands in Bitcoin, then panic sold to take profits
ALT coins took a beating, losing more than BTC
My other recently published ideas WARNED about weak hands in the stock market who treat Bitcoin like a stock. This continues to be a problem in the crypto market.
Comment:
As I said in other posts, I have 15k followers on Reddit and I do not always publish in both social media equally. I add new content to my Reddit a much as ten times daily. I prefer Reddit because Reddit allows me to ban and remove trolls. I do not consider people who disagree with me as trolls, but people who speak with arrogance or cannot provide work to back up their thinking are for me, a distraction to the reddit channel and especially for newbies trying to learn.
This next chart was published 12 hours ago, but it has more to go. Some of you might be unhappy that I forecast three paths. My defense is that STOCK MARKET is really in control and any TA I do must take this into account. It is lately like trying to predict where a squirrel will run in your back yard.
The red path is invalidated of course, but I take pride in nailing the first main resistance and the manner in which BTC moved in the last 12 hours.
The stock market is so volatile, that I dare not say which remaining forecast is most likely. NO ONE KNOWS.
This next chart was published 12 hours ago, but it has more to go. Some of you might be unhappy that I forecast three paths. My defense is that STOCK MARKET is really in control and any TA I do must take this into account. It is lately like trying to predict where a squirrel will run in your back yard.
The red path is invalidated of course, but I take pride in nailing the first main resistance and the manner in which BTC moved in the last 12 hours.
The stock market is so volatile, that I dare not say which remaining forecast is most likely. NO ONE KNOWS.
Comment:
Tradingview has been giving me issues publishing.
Blue forecast seems to be in play. Or some hybrid version...
Blue forecast seems to be in play. Or some hybrid version...
Comment:
So blue wins... and the entire forecast is now done and new one needs to replace it.
bottom ascending dynamic trend line was misdrawn
reason? actual halt prices of the pivots were lower
Why does this matter?
it defines the most likely stopping pricing for a local correction down
thanks for understanding