In this idea, we are going to consider BTCUSD in mid-term vision. What options of price behaviour we have and how can we cope with them to stay in profit. Even though the dump from $13000 was quite obvious, as there was a huge divergence, the current market situation is not such clear.
When we look at the 1H - 4H timeframes we can see a sharp growth, the price breaks resistances one by one because of which this week was absolutely green. To absorb the previous red week we need to break the last resistance which is located at the $10650 level. In case this resistance will be broken - the price can freely go upward up to $12000 level. To be honest, this growth on 1W chart is very similar to the 2017 pump to $20000. We can't call this growth natural and healthy, but we can do nothing with it. The most important thing now is to understand where the growth will end and where it WON'T end.
Let's start with the strongest support level which has shown its powers many times before — $8900 - $9100. In the future, this level will become a "mirror" one. In case it will be broken, the price will go further downward in order to find the next strong support. More likely, it will be ±$7000 level. There we will see a finish of the ABC correction. Btw, I want to mention that we can't fall lower than $6500, because it is the strongest global market support. Taking into account abnormal buy volumes which come into market now we can conclude that no one will sell below $6500. Therefore, in case the 1W candle will close below $8900 level, you can confidently sell and buy back in the $7000 area.
As I've already told, in case the price will break through the $10650 resistance, we can expect one to reach $12000 - $13000 zone very soon. I want to mention one important level there: if the BTC price reaches mentioned zones and doesn't want to come back, it would be a very bullish sign - signal for buying, as it would show us that bulls are much stronger than bears.
Thus, we have two thesis:
1. Breakdown of the $8900 support - SELL signal. Buy back in the $7000 zone.
2. Breakout of the $10650 resistance and closure 1W candle above - BUY signal. Then hold until $12000 - $13000 resistance and observe price behaviour.
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market and btc volume is low and declining which is normal, the big whales are attracting / lure people to buy in short to rally to break through 15k... well they control the prices, since they are controlling the supply of btc more than 95% collectively (ether is much more decentralized in supply) But the current momentum is simply cant hold.... btc is deemed as the legit and only one is actually a propaganda by the big whales... although btc network is decentralized it is not supply decentralized.
Without falling back to 7k and below, the graph is not healthy at all in terms of waves or ta or even for mid to long term... the rise is very artificial since beginning of march ..... The harder it rises to 15k and above now, the harder it will fall...... newbies and crypto savvy people really need to learn but hopefully not the hard ways.
I agree mostly, except I don't believe that this is the run that breaks us out of the descending channel. I think we will tumble as we did following 13118. I would like to see a fall back to 7k, but I suspect there is significant retail money on the sidelines waiting for sub-10k that will interfere with what should be a healthy pullback. So, I think we will pullback, and whatever level that occurs will mark the beginning of a run toward 15k, in my opinion.
goi00
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No need for complicated analysis. Time to take profit and exit
Zoen_Trieste
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BTCUSD Monthly Bought 1 BTC @ 3.7k, stashed it in a cold wallet, gonna pass it on to my grandkids.
LoveIsland
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@Zoen_Trieste, wow! You absolutely NAILED it! I’m super impressed. Any thoughts on ETH/USD? Cheers
Zoen_Trieste
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@LoveIsland, Never looked at it TBH. It correlates with BTC most of the times, so the same could be applied to it.